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Coronaviris (COVID19): Today 02/27/20 will be the US game changer.

Markos

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Hi Folks,

I’m surprised this hasn’t come up yet. It is my opinion that today marks day 1 of US citizens and organizations taking this seriously. By this evening’s news cycle, we will learn that a WA high school was closed due to quarantine of a staffer’s immediate family. The individual in california whom is suspected of having the virus without international travel will be a repeat highlight. The virus is in 40 countries and the condition doesn’t present itself until one has casually infected surrounding individuals. A block of travel from asian countries will do nothing to stop the spread when infected countries are free and clear. Give it another few weeks. I don’t think that the US will see the casualty rate of other less equipped countries, but we will be making lifestyle changes and will feel the impact in our daily routine, as well as financially.

The leisure service industry is already taking the hit on travel. Expedia coincidentally (I really do think it is a coincidence) just laid off 12% of their workforce. United flights to asia are down by magnitudes, and other destinations like Korea are being added to the travel blacklist.

If you are currently employed - particularly if you are in a position with decision authority, ensure that your IT department is equipped to handle an entire office working from home. Folks in the east coast and midwest will have already experienced this with snow days - for better or worse. I happen to work for a tech savvy organization that can serve the entire employee base remotely. They are also quite in tune with the epidemic, but this I only represent my family and the broader IT industry in this post.

On the subject of snow days. Seattle grocery stores are emptied before the snow hits the ground. I am not overly concerned about catching the virus (yet), but I do expect food resources to become more challenging. I am part of the problem. I have asked my wife to pickup more dry and canned goods today, noting that the WA news will kickstart the stockpiling. Fortunately she makes amazing bread, and that is the first to go during our typical snow day grocery store clean out. :D

Personally I don’t think that we are overreacting, but I welcome the discussion. My wife is a microbiologist and happens to be quite passionate about viruses and infectious disease. A few weeks into the news cycle, we watched the film contagion which had an element of Hollywood doomsday to it, but does do a fairly good job of showing how viruses can spread quickly, and how different personalities respond.

Enough of the science fiction and grocery panic.
Some folks know that I am in the field of data & visualization. I am particularly impressed with this work, and will be following it closely.

~80K cases this week. Let’s see what it looks like next week. Keep your eye on this interactive map from John’s Hopkins.
 

Stevehose

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I read that the person in CA acutally may have come in contact with someone who did travel internationally, but it was not mentioned until later in the story
 

BarryG

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The folks that were quarantined at Travis Air Force base were ... just let out... go be free don’t let anyone make you feel bad that you were held in quarantine. Yah right.
14 day they were held, not really sure if that was enough time , evidently not .

The lady that is at UC Davis in Sac lived in Solano county, were is Travis? Solano Co.

Don’t panic... just stay home

This is Solano Co
A50255EA-6636-48F2-B422-6B84F21A49F9.jpeg
 

Markos

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I read that the person in CA acutally may have come in contact with someone who did travel internationally, but it was not mentioned until later in the story
That would make sense. It has to travel the globe somehow.
 

bavbob

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As a physician, I have always felt that the media does a horribe job at communicating health issues like this. Although we hear about how fast it has spread and how many are infected and the number of casualties, what is never mentioned are the demographics of those worst cases/casualties. The majority in the US are/will be immunocompromised (actively being treated for cancer, elderly, neonates are some examples) and do not represent the public at large. I think the media has a civil duty to inform and calm the public rather than take the stats that are more sensationalized and stir the pot. We may have a single case here in Ma, an international student at Umass Amherst, my son is there, I am really not worried.
 

craterface

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As a physician, I have always felt that the media does a horribe job at communicating health issues like this. Although we hear about how fast it has spread and how many are infected and the number of casualties, what is never mentioned are the demographics of those worst cases/casualties. The majority in the US are/will be immunocompromised (actively being treated for cancer, elderly, neonates are some examples) and do not represent the public at large. I think the media has a civil duty to inform and calm the public rather than take the stats that are more sensationalized and stir the pot. We may have a single case here in Ma, an international student at Umass Amherst, my son is there, I am really not worried.
As a physician also, I agree 100%. Wash your hands. If you smoke, quit. If you don't feel well, stay home. But otherwise go to work, live your life. Lots of heavy smokers in China, and their health care is marginal at best. So more deaths.
 

Markos

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As a physician also, I agree 100%. Wash your hands. If you smoke, quit. If you don't feel well, stay home. But otherwise go to work, live your life. Lots of heavy smokers in China, and their health care is marginal at best. So more deaths.
I totally agree. I am very disappointed with the media in general, not because I think it is “fake”. I don’t think that they are sensationalizing the risk of the virus. In fact, there is almost zero reporting on mortalities. Much is reported on the spread. There are millions of immunocompromised citizens in the US at any given point in time, and magnitudes more than that whom could be affected for reasons other than health. Also, how do you accurately measure incidence rate when the testing of said infection is centralized and test kits are on low supply?

A physician who isn’t worried about it also has excellent hand hygiene. He or she has excellent health benefits. A physician can miss a month of work without financial worry or job stability. A physician can rally resources to care for children and family if needed. A physician has enough rooms in his or her home to quarantine a sick family member. A physician lives in a neighborhood of equally capable residents. Those residents live near a hospital that is more equipped and less overcrowded than others in normal health scenarios. There many are other factors that will be of concern besides mortality.

I’m not scared or even worried. I am watching intently.
 

Dick Steinkamp

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I think the media has a civil duty to inform and calm the public rather than take the stats that are more sensationalized and stir the pot.
Unfortunately that wouldn't help ratings or attract advertisers.

The CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 29 million flu illnesses, 280,000 hospitalizations and 16,000 deaths from flu. This is NOT COVID19. These are the varieties of flu we experience every flu season here in the US. Not news worth enough to report on obviously. News that could save lives by increasing awareness of the dangers of flu and the availability of preventive vaccines.

We do know, however, all the details of the few residents of the US who may have COVID19. God help us if one of them dies. It is all we will hear on the 24 hour news cycle for weeks. :(
 

craterface

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I totally agree. I am very disappointed with the media in general, not because I think it is “fake”. I don’t think that they are sensationalizing the risk of the virus. In fact, there is almost zero reporting on mortalities. Much is reported on the spread. There are millions of immunocompromised citizens in the US at any given point in time, and magnitudes more than that whom could be affected for reasons other than health. Also, how do you accurately measure incidence rate when the testing of said infection is centralized and test kits are on low supply.

A physician who isn’t worried about it also has excellent hand hygiene. He or she has excellent health benefits. A physician can miss a month of work without financial worry or job stability. A physician can rally resources to care for children and family if needed. A physician has enough rooms in his or her home to quarantine a sick family member. A physician lives in a neighborhood if equally capable residents. Those residents live near a hospital that is more equipped and less overcrowded than others in normal health scenarios. There many are other factors that will be of concern besides mortality.

I’m not scared or even worried. I am watching intently.
One thing that does concern me is that hospitals here in FL in the winter are strained to the max at baseline. The population of elderly people spikes by 50% in winter. People routinely wait in the ER for 24 hours to be admitted to floor. This is the norm. It is a shocking and terrible reality. An epidemic of coronavirus could kill a lot of old people here. But that doesn't mean folks should run and hide. Flu has killed thousands this winter already.
 

Markos

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One thing that does concern me is that hospitals here in FL in the winter are strained to the max at baseline. The population of elderly people spikes by 50% in winter. People routinely wait in the ER for 24 hours to be admitted to floor. This is the norm. It is a shocking and terrible reality. An epidemic of coronavirus could kill a lot of old people here. But that doesn't mean folks should run and hide. Flu has killed thousands this winter already.
Interesting discussion. The least resistant individuals, elderly or those with inadequate & lifestyle diet also have the worst hospital capacity. The flu killed thousands this winter with a vaccine that was about 50% effective.

I’m curious to know what the inventory of masks and sanitation equipment is at hospitals. While the stock market has been hit quite hard, 3M stock is going up.
 

craterface

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Interesting discussion. The least resistant individuals, elderly or those with inadequate & lifestyle diet also have the worst hospital capacity. The flu killed thousands this winter with a vaccine that was about 50% effective.

I’m curious to know what the inventory of masks and sanitation equipment is at hospitals. While the stock market has been hit quite hard, 3M stock is going up.
we are being asked to ration masks and are limited in what we can order. A lot of masks and gowns are made in China, compounding the problem.
 

Markos

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Another discussion I had with my family about Seattle prepper behavior. While it is true that the shelves are emptied before a snow storm, the biggest problem is that no trucks come thereafter to deliver food. That seems unlikely given that the roads will be clear and dry.

This is my neighborhood Kroger the evening before a 6” snowstorm last February. It ended up snowing quite a bit more, so no more bread after this.
773E9A47-F2C9-432D-9DD7-D7F08782BA58.jpeg
 

dang

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we are being asked to ration masks and are limited in what we can order. A lot of masks and gowns are made in China, compounding the problem.
I guess my wife and I will have to walk around with my charcoal filter painting masks. ;)
 
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