Coronaviris (COVID19): Today 02/27/20 will be the US game changer.

73Polaris

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Well, now that I am better, two weeks ago on Monday I came down with the hacking cough and intermittent fever. I called my doc, he said you are over 65, can you walk to the street and back to your house without feeling like you walked a mile? I said of course, he said stay home and rest. There is no testing taking place unless you can’t breathe. I have to assume I had the covid-19. The week before Collin and I went to Eugene to visit the university where he will enroll for fall. Was it the airplane trip? Who knows? My wife religiously cleaned everything and quarantined me in our home. After two weeks I’m fine and working in the garage again. The prior two weeks I had no energy and only resting helped the cough, wife and son stayed healthy. I’m lucky.
If indeed you had it and have now recovered, that is great news. You hopefully will be contributing to the herd immunity that needs to build quickly if we are going to stop the spread.

I'm in the Bay Area and have been "sheltered in place" for 11 days now with my family. We flew back from a spring break trip to Hawaii 2 weeks ago on Thursday 3/12 and started isolating that weekend. I was worried about catching it while traveling, but so far we seem to have dodged the virus as it's been almost 2 weeks and none of us are showing symptoms. Been working and schooling from home.

However, can't see any way to stop the spread if we cancel SIP. You realize that if one of us in the family breaks the SIP and comes in contract with a sick person, then we all will most likely get sick. No short term fix, I'm just grateful that we can work and school from home.
 

73Polaris

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I was telling @sfdon that I think fine wine sales will kick up after the lockdown. Everyone is cracking into their good stuff :D
Agree with this. Sheltering in Place with a wine cellar has been a big advantage. I typically don't need a reason to crack a good bottle of wine, and am enjoying eating in every night and sharing a nice bottle or 2 with the family all together.
 

Peter Coomaraswamy

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I don't know DeQ, I nod to your opinion and accept your position; I however do believe that drinking something in "fishtank cleaner" would, under any circumstances, pre-qualify someone as an imbecile albeit an anxious imbecile, and that's coming from someone who's been to allot of Dead shows and probably took allot more stuff than he should have.

Chris, that's crazy! glad you are OK. It will be interesting sometime in the future to see if you actually had covid-19. From your travels north it sounds quite possible. Glad you're recovered!!
 

Gransin

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please delete this nonsense
it is extremely dangerous to give trust to this kind of news
be responsible and act judiciously
if you are in health troubke go to your doctor
DeQ, I see your point, so I deleted the twitter post. See my reply to Gazz, I just meant well but I was a little naive on how people could react in these difficult times.
Hope all is well with you & and your family.
 

Gazz

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DeQ, I see your point, so I deleted the twitter post. See my reply to Gazz, I just meant well but I was a little naive on how people could react in these difficult times.
Hope all is well with you & and your family.
I'm going to agree with Markos on this one. People make mistakes and everyone is uncertain at present. The well intentioned are trying to help, as I'm sure you were Robert,
however I feel it is important to illustrate mistakes, misconceptions, call it what you will, so as to foster educated caution in our responses. So perhaps you may consider reinstating your post. Not to hold you up to pillory but to illustrate an example of, perhaps, rashness. That is if you are willing to humble yourself in this way.
Posting the advice was imprudent but maybe informing people of the imprudence is more important.

Drinking fish tank cleaning fluid........well I don't know all the facts about that but on the face of it it seems like an act of naive desperation that has cost someone their life.
 

JayWltrs

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DeQ, I see your point, so I deleted the twitter post. See my reply to Gazz, I just meant well but I was a little naive on how people could react in these difficult times.
Hope all is well with you & and your family.
Have an acquaintance in NYC on a ventilator and sedated. He is being given an experimental round of a related malaria drug & Z-Pak, which they’ve apparently used with some success in France. But the monitoring by medical staff is intense. I don’t understand it fully, but I think he was a candidate b/c he is young (40s) & fit and the side effects Scott mentioned could be managed in intensive care. It doesn’t sound like a wonder drug cure as much as an additional means with the ventilator & IL-6 inhibitors to keep him healthy enough to let the virus run its course. Like I said, I don’t profess to understand it & my information is second hand, but it was called “very experimental” & doesn’t at all sound like something you could self-administer.
 
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Gransin

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My initial intention was to get a discussion started about possible cures and what's beeing tested where you live (as many of you know, there are several beeing tested on a smaller scale).
The twitter post I posted was sensational and also political so I definitively should have known better, and I couldn't believe anybody here would take it as a good source for self medication. My initial post was also very weak since I didn't explain what I wanted to get out of it, but I take full responsibility and it hurts because I always try my best to post factual and good posts as I hope you all know.
 

deQuincey

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I don't know DeQ, I nod to your opinion and accept your position; I however do believe that drinking something in "fishtank cleaner" would, under any circumstances, pre-qualify someone as an imbecile albeit an anxious imbecile, and that's coming from someone who's been to allot of Dead shows and probably took allot more stuff than he should have.

Chris, that's crazy! glad you are OK. It will be interesting sometime in the future to see if you actually had covid-19. From your travels north it sounds quite possible. Glad you're recovered!!
in those cases i always think what kind of extreme anxiety may lead someone to make that decission
i feel more pity than anyother feeling
in the case of elderly people it makes me cry
kids and old people are very week and exposed to all kind of dangers, but while kids are usually in the hands of their parents, old people are supposed to know what to do, and the are thrown under the wheels of the evolution and modernisation
my mother is 87 and i take care of an aunt that is 96, i can put dozens of examples
sorry
 

deQuincey

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DeQ, I see your point, so I deleted the twitter post. See my reply to Gazz, I just meant well but I was a little naive on how people could react in these difficult times.
Hope all is well with you & and your family.
i feel a lot of respect for you, and i am absolutely sure that you try to help
but we are experiencing an extreme situation with a lot of fake news around, some of them are funny, others may have consequences
i asked you to delete it, because even if you put it into context a few posts later, when you search for something you will find it without the context and comments
that makes a wrong advise very dangerous
thank you
p.s. all well here, hope same for you and your relatives
regards
 

Gazz

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Border force, ( what used to be called customs ), here today at Sydney airport stood by while arriving passengers queued in a crowd with no regard to maintaining distance, even with very prominent signage explaining what to do. When asked why they weren't policing the crowd they said "it's not our problem, it's biosecurity"s job".

Can you believe this obtuse idiocy?

I thought we were all in this together!
 

deQuincey

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I would like to think that we are actually just ordinary folk and that one doesn't have to be amazing to be frank, open and express a view. In any case thanks for the sentiment Mot.
@Gazz : but you would be horrified if you were able to read the bmw spanish forum, so i have to agree with @Mot27cars despite we are all people, some people are different people than other people
 

Peter Coomaraswamy

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Chris, happy to hear you're okay! I've had the same symptoms as you for three weeks in a row now + absolutely no sense of taste and smell from the beginning. - it's finally getting better, but nothing has knocked me down this long ever before in my life. A week ago they recommended me to come in for a couple of blood samples, which confirmed it was a virus. Even though I was in a pretty bad shape, a covid-19 test was not going to happen, at least not until I needed to be hospitalized.
So who knows, it could of course have been the influenza. I guess I'll find out as soon as the antibody tests are available.
Robert, glad you are better as well! Wow, let's suppose that both your case and Chris's case were CV-19, I wonder what percentage of members on the site (as a sample) that would make up.

It is a very serious disease, my brother is a surgeon on the front lines in NYC, They are in short supply of everything. I and my brother in Phoenix are overnighting him as many N95 masks as possible, he says the ICU is at capacity-

He paints a rather grim picture but is always hopeful that something starts kicking in soon, be it an effective treatment, more ICU beds and/or ventilators.

We here in Austin are social-distancing. We're down to a crew of 6 at my company and are considered "essential" business since we provide information to the NIH, VA's and other medical/drug and government agencies. It's a lot of work reading through the bills, which are everchanging, so we can keep all of our people employed through the shut-down and beyond. This is an interesting time in history for sure and a great opportunity to practice true charity. I know some of my comments are not always considered charitable (I am a bit damaged myself) but when this is all over I hope I can say I was part of the solution and not the problem- or at very least that I did not contribute overwhelmingly to the problem and I hope our civil leaders on both sides of the isle feel the same way.
 

Markos

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Robert, glad you are better as well! Wow, let's suppose that both your case and Chris's case were CV-19, I wonder what percentage of members on the site (as a sample) that would make up.
There are a number of other people in this community that have been affected by this directly. Overall like the real world, a small percentage (for now). Real people that we care about though. Not just numbers on the evening news.
 

Markos

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I’m wondering if there is any improvement at this point in Italy?
I hate to be cried, but you have to figure there is a delay. Get sick. Get tested. Get hospitalized. Get underserved. Die.


The things to measure should have little to
do with the virus itself. It should be about the effect of social distancing and the capacity to treat. Just like measuring any intervention with downstream benefits, there is a “tail” on the data.

My thoughts:
  • Individuals with symptoms requesting tests goes down. Not measured
  • Positive Tests / Total Tests goes down. Measured, perhaps not nationally
  • Positive Tests requiring hospitalization. Not measured well or nationally
  • Patient intake vs discharge/fatality. Not measured nationally
  • Non-Covid patients displaced and disposition (fatality)
How many cancer/stroke/heart failure patients have died in Italy due to hospital capacity issues? Hospital capacity is now a comorbidity in Italy!

I could tell you at the hospital that I support what the percent positive is on COVID testing, percent of patients/staff infected. We also have data scientists forecasting infection rates, capacity, displaced revenue, etc. Administration has been notified that all non-covid data requests and reporting requests are on hold. Just about any high functioning hospital in the US will be doing the same.

One thing that I have never supported in a hospital setting is supply chain. My suspicion is that this is normally handled by low-level purchasing agents working off of standard, highly predictable demand. I’ve done quite a bit of retail supply chain forecasting during normal operating condition. Even then, it is very tricky and dependent on a number of variables that are often out of your control. There is no supply for PPE right now and the staff responsible for ordering it likely do not have the expertise to forecast the impact of a kink in the chain.

Think about it this way. In retail the supply chain is part of the profit center. Moving product efficiently from manufacturer to warehouse to consumer reduces costs, increases sales, etc. Efficient supply chain is why Amazon Prime generates massive revenue. Hospitals on the other hand treat supply chain as a cost center. You don’t have huge budgets in operational departments that don’t drive revenue. So, you have ‘adequate’ people trying to respond to a lack of inventory.

No offense to any people in purchasing. :)
 

Peter Coomaraswamy

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Hi All- Spoke to a doc in NYC; I'm just translating after digesting my conversation, what I take away from this is that there is just no experience with this type of volume. Even during 911, my brother (Head & Neck trauma surgeon) told me there were tons of doctors and nurses lined up waiting for the patients to arrive so they could get to work- they waited and waited and waited and then the doctors and nurses broke down in tears once they realized there were no patients coming. Our city hospitals are super capable of handling mass emergencies at lightning speed, the problem with CV-19 is that it is NOT stopping, it's the prolonged, seemingly never-ending line of new patients that keep arriving that's causing the distress. I'm sure in the future we will have a contingency plan for something like this and I guess we could all say that we should have known better after SARS, MERS, Ebola, etc.

I asked my brother what we could do to help- his answer was just to keep doing what we're doing, social distancing, common sense and carry on as best we can with the work that we do; if you're a teacher- teach remotely, if you're a businessperson take care of your people, if you pump gas make sure the station is clean. He felt that everyone who contributes to society is going to help the situation if they just do their best to do the right thing.

And take this very seriously- I'm sure everyone here does, but the younger folks seem to be even more clueless than I was way back then. I could be wrong but even though we (I) were (was) rebellious, I used to listen to authorities when they said there was an imminent danger, be it AIDS, Son of Sam, etc.

And Markos, I think you're very correct with the supply-chain assessment, government, corporations, schools, hospitals and even individuals all look at purchasing in a different way according to the needs and dictates of the individual entity. Some purchasing positions are just under the CFO in the pecking order in corporations (and are paid as such), some are not as well regarded but that's a story for another volume.

This is a good place to keep up with each other- I'm trying to move away from my typical self-indulgent comments- I hope the above was of some help-
 

Gazz

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People are using war as an analogy to try and get a handle on it all. And as Markos intimated, there are collateral casualties in this situation, just as there are in wars.
If it is a War then it behoves us to throw everything at it and work out the cost later. Hindsight may show that some measures went too far but any delay whilst trying to figure out all the possible ramifications will simply extend the fight.

Cooperative effort will win through just about anything. The virus is one enemy, individual opportunism and grandstanding is the other. Authorities here are now engaging in a game of blaming each other instead of reorganising themselves into a galvanised force. These are the people we rely on. It makes me sick.
 

Wes

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People are using war as an analogy to try and get a handle on it all. And as Markos intimated, there are collateral casualties in this situation, just as there are in wars.
If it is a War then it behoves us to throw everything at it and work out the cost later. Hindsight may show that some measures went too far but any delay whilst trying to figure out all the possible ramifications will simply extend the fight.

Cooperative effort will win through just about anything. The virus is one enemy, individual opportunism and grandstanding is the other. Authorities here are now engaging in a game of blaming each other instead of reorganising themselves into a galvanised force. These are the people we rely on. It makes me sick.
So if Covid doesn't get you your loathing of government will :D
 
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