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Coronaviris (COVID19): Today 02/27/20 will be the US game changer.

bfeng

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No politics. Just science.
(Pop density in people per sqkm and COVID deaths per million)
Clearly population density DOES NOT TRUMP the intelligent and timely response of the country’s leadership. Sorry for the insinuated political statement.

Where there is good correlation is countries lead by women and countries with lowest deaths per capita.


Spain: 94/sqkm and 279/mil
Italy: 202 and 262/mil
France: 119 and 136/mil
Sweden: 23 and 119/mil
USA: 34 and 33/mil
Taiwan: 649 and 0.21/mil
New Zealand: 18 and 0.21/mil
 

dang

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Here is a a visual of the data
I don't think we can look at it from that high up. NY City is packed with people living on top of each other, as other cities are, but where I live it's suburbia. We already live a quazi-social distance anyway, with the exception of big events, schools and churches, so to lock down entire states when the population makeup is so diverse doesn't seem right sometimes. But, where do you draw the line? That's why decisions are made that seem conservative.
 

bfeng

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Ok.. let’s look at The Bronx (pop 1.4M) vs Taipei (pop 2.6mM).

Density: 13k vs 25k per sqkm
Death rate: 225 vs 0.002 per 100k people
(density still doesn't correlate to death rate)

Now, yes ... Taipei’s residents are likely much more healthy than the average American. That’s true for pretty much any country other than the UK. But the same could be said for all of Sweden/Norway and Belgium. So I think the correlation between density and death per capita is NOT going to hold up when there are other very powerful factors at play. Now, if you normalize against the qualit and timing of the govt response as well as the willingness of the general populace to temporarily sacrifice personal freedoms for the greater good of society, then maybe density will show better correlation.

I think if you looked at per capita deaths as a function of density for >1M cities in the north east, you might see much better correlation because these other factors are going to be more similar.
 
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bfeng

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FWIW, a nearby town was a major hot spot for MA. An unusually high number of biomedical folk and biomed investors live there (wealthy, HUGE homes on 2 acre+ lots), and they all went to a Boston conference full of folks from Europe and Asia in late Feb. That community was something like 1/3 of all cases state wide within a week.
 

bfeng

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Btw, in my opinion statewide lockdown should not be necessary if we don’t have lots of intra-state travel.

In a small state like MA, people drive across the state on day trips often. So maybe we needed a 1/2 state travel barrier (east bs west side). Or we could have done it county by county. But would people actually abide by that?

Wyoming, on the other hand, may only really need something in Laramie and Cheyenne. As the rest of the place is pretty damn sparse.
 

bfeng

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and yes these are VERY high level, and therefore less meaningful.
But, I still think they provide some useful perspective on one country's performance vs another's.

covid_statistics.jpg
 

Gazz

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If you look at deaths per capita, Sweden has the 8th highest death rate in the world at 215/M. Finland has 34/M, Norway has 37/M, France has 341/M. If you go to the other end of the control scale where things were locked own quickly, New Zealand has a death rate of 4/M and South Korea stands at 5/M.
The US is about 164/M.
Australia currently has a rate of 3.25/M. A stat' like this has a limited application when applying it as a comparison to the world. Australia, NZ, Taiwan and other advanced island nations have the advantage of closing their borders quickly. In Australia during Covid19 no non citizens are allowed into the country. Citizens who make it back are to go into mandatory 14 day quarantine.
There are so many factors in play besides just graphs and numbers. Swedes are, dare I say it, of the cold hard logic and pragmatic Nordic disposition, ( perhaps Gransin can back me up here because I would say Finns are even more so. Sorry Gransin can't resist - An introverted Finn looks at his shoes when talking to you; an extroverted Finn looks at your shoes ), so for them the common sense is to take measures to avoid contagion yet pragmatic logic dictates that you don't destroy an economy and put a nation out of work to protect a few.

Everybody has heard the aphorism "There are lies, damned lies and statistics". It's not that the statistics lie as such, it's the interpretive way they are applied that creates the lie.

Countries led by women are doing well statistically? Well that may simply be a coincidence.
 
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Markos

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Ok.. let’s look at The Bronx (pop 1.4M) vs Taipei (pop 2.6mM).

Density: 13k vs 25k per sqkm
Death rate: 225 vs 0.002 per 100k people
(density still doesn't correlate to death rate)

Now, yes ... Taipei’s residents are likely much more healthy than the average American.
Not only that, but about 25% of Taipei commuters where masks regularly, and closer to 100% wear masks during seasonal epidemics.

I’ll be the first to admit that a year ago, I thought it was strange seeing the asian community in Seattle wearing face masks around town. How ignorant of me! :oops:
 

Mike Goble

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Australia, NZ, Taiwan and other advanced island nations have the advantage of closing their borders quickly.
...pragmatic logic dictates that you don't destroy an economy and put a nation out of work to protect a few.
Any nation can close its borders quickly. If the few is you, what do you do?
 

Gazz

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Any nation can close its borders quickly. If the few is you, what do you do?
I meant that it's easier to stop the movement of people onto and off an island. Not so easy where there is a lot of cross border interaction within a broad continental community of countries. It takes a long time to get non citizens out and allow widely spread citizens to return to any given country within that context. Europe, as a European union, has tremendously porous borders so a quick response full closure is enormously difficult for any country there. Even England as an Island nation is struggling though the reasons are more complex than simply closing the borders.
If the few is you, you do what you can. In Australia we have our disadvantages as well. Relatively easy to stop entry but harder to get people out. You can't just point your finger at the border and say OUT!
 

bfeng

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Women leaders and the pandemic.

How many of your fathers said, “Timmy, better wear a sweater in case it gets cold later.” Not my dad. His attitude was, “you screw up and you’ll never forget that lesson again. It’s my job to teach you to be tough. It’s your moms job to teach you to be afraid.“

Ok, so in late January my wife says, “ gee honey, maybe we should order a couple extra boxes of those N95 masks you wear when you are wasting time and my money in your workshop.” My response was, “are you kidding, this will be a regional problem like SARS and you worry too much.” Amongst my guy crowd, the only one who bought a bunch of PPE in early Feb is this very successful self-made gazillionaire. In early Feb. she says, “gee honey, let’s buy some extra Charmin.” But idiot me says, “don’t be such a wimp, girl! We can tough it out and use all that Amazon Prime packing paper in the recycling bin!” Guess who is using the Scotts in his bathroom vs ultra soft Charmin the girls have in theirs (wife and daughters)?

I do think there is some loose correlation to women being more conservative about health risks and such threats where the stereotypical macho male leader is more likely to lead a charge into withering machine gun fire. Most women I know don’t show off scars as points of pride, but the guys...well
Give us a couple beers and we’re nearly naked showing off our latest scrapes and burns...

Anyway, the president of Taiwan prepared by setting up supply chains and mfg for localized PPE in early January. Led by a woman. NZ Locked down early. Led by a woman. I don’t know if there is causality but there is some correlation.
 
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sfdon

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alliances? how feudal but effective. The “trans-Tasman bubble” is coming!



“On the upside, Australia could experience a better than expected containment and recovery. This could be further boosted by a potential twinning of Australia’s economy with New Zealand, which has experienced similar success in controlling the outbreak. The establishment of a “trans-Tasman bubble” which might experience more relaxed movement of people and activity could result in a stronger and and earlier recovery for both economies.”
 

Gary Knox

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I was asked a question by a relative who lives in a VERY rural area in the great plains. Quote: "If Montana developed a serious statewide communicable ailment, how soon do you think New York would be forced to 'shut down'"? I doubted it would happen until that ailment reached at least the Susquehanna river! - ha.

But then the New Yorker's map of the US doesn't even show the Susquehanna, so it might take longer than that..

Gary
 

Markos

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Honestly, it took longer than I expected. Property crime in my township and now my neighborhood is now on the rise.

It is a little easier these days to stay informed. I’m on a facebook group for my town (what a sh*t-show that is!). I’m also on about a one-block email distribution group. Fortunately all ring doorbell users get notified of break-in attempts and “porch pirates” stealing boxes. Videos are shared with neighbors and police. I don’t have a ring doorbell but have been reading the chatter.

Most home break-ins happen during the day, but that is changing since everyone is home. This morning, someone tried to break into a garage in my area. I cleaned out my kids mess and pulled the car in last night. The garage opener on my honda works on general power and not ignition power (most cars have this terrible design flaw IMO). I pulled the car in and plan to deprogram the opener.

My wife and I anticipated this also and prepared a little, bit not quite as much as other aspects of this shut down. Today I will increase the LED brightness on my cameras so they are more visible to people entering my property. It will take me longer to have better phone alerting etc when their is motion. I don’t usually have that stuff enabled. I also changed the timer on my porch light to stay on all night.
 

Stevehose

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I would put their numbers just slightly above China's on the reliable scale.

An article on Vietnam's response - pretty impressive results. To date just 270 cases and no deaths.

 

Gransin

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Swedes are, dare I say it, of the cold hard logic and pragmatic Nordic disposition, ( perhaps Gransin can back me up here because I would say Finns are even more so. Sorry Gransin can't resist - An introverted Finn looks at his shoes when talking to you; an extroverted Finn looks at your shoes ), so for them the common sense is to take measures to avoid contagion yet pragmatic logic dictates that you don't destroy an economy and put a nation out of work to protect a few.
Swedes in general, yes. Their leadership, well I won't comment. But in this particular case they're definitely trying something else.
Finland currently has a government led by five relatively young women and I think they're doing the best they can, but I believe they didn't want to take any risks and simply followed what everybody else was doing. Let's see what happens next when they start opening everything up again in a few weeks.
It's worth to mention that the Swedish economy isn't exactly going like a freight train through this pandemic, it will take a big hit but they might be a little better off than other countries in the end.
LOL, extroverted Finns, I'll believe it when I see one! :D
 
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