Tesla may actually survive

[craterface]

Some of you may know that my wife has had a 2013 Model S 40 (the rare entry level model) for five years and 80k miles. I think it is a fantastic product. I have no idea about the financial viability of the company, and I don't own the stock, but this video is fascinating. Silicon Valley really does attract the smartest engineering talent in the world. Check this video:

 

[teahead]

Hard to say. They need to offer a smaller CUV that's under $50k IMHO to compete once Porsche and Volvo and others flood the market w/e-cars.

Do wish there were standards of plugs and power stations across the US.

 

[Markos]

It is shocking to me the amount of people that want to see Tesla fail. I'm talking about regular car enthusiasts that don't like Musk's promises and arrogance. Obviously GM and Ford have their opinion but you would think that US based auto enthusiasts would want to see them make it.

 

[Philippe db]

I like what Tesla did, they for sure changed the car industry for good but I'm absolutely convinced that they have no future.

They will simply be blown away by the big boys. Already in Europe you see S model sales drop by 1/3 because the people who can afford these cars are waiting for the E cars from Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Porsche.......

Tesla showed the way but they are no match for the giants in this industry.

Tesla is fuelled only by unbelievable amounts of debt but no means to ever pay that money back. Don't forget that both Mercedes and Toyota were big share holders in Tesla not that long ago. They both sold their stock because they felt they had nothing more to learn.

I give them 5 more years max. Lets talk again in 2023.

 

[craterface]

I like what Tesla did, they for sure changed the car industry for good but I'm absolutely convinced that they have no future.

They will simply be blown away by the big boys. Already in Europe you see S model sales drop by 1/3 because the people who can afford these cars are waiting for the E cars from Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Porsche.......

Tesla showed the way but they are no match for the giants in this industry.

Tesla is fuelled only by unbelievable amounts of debt but no means to ever pay that money back. Don't forget that both Mercedes and Toyota were big share holders in Tesla not that long ago. They both sold their stock because they felt they had nothing more to learn.

I give them 5 more years max. Lets talk again in 2023.

I tend to agree, however we still have no full electric cars from the big boys and Tesla's model S has been out there since 2012! We see all kinds of reports about show cars from Audi, MB etc with 300 mile range, but no actual cars. The electric Jaguar was just introduced here, and we will see how that does.

I just can't believe that the European luxury makers have had no answer for the Tesla model S that I can actually buy. And they have had six years to catch up. So Tesla really may have some engineering talent that they lack.

The other wildcard is that Tesla has a very loyal following here in the US, and they have thousands and thousands of pre-orders for the Model 3.

That said I look forward to driving the Porsche Taycan.

 

[rsporsche]

i hope the europeans can make a better electric version than the tesla. the interior of the tesla is terrible, looks like cheap plastic with plenty of detail - and all of it bad. its quick, for sure ... a lot of other good aspects ... nice interior is far from a success story.

 

[Ohmess]

I like what Tesla did, they for sure changed the car industry for good but I'm absolutely convinced that they have no future.

They will simply be blown away by the big boys. Already in Europe you see S model sales drop by 1/3 because the people who can afford these cars are waiting for the E cars from Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Porsche.......

Tesla showed the way but they are no match for the giants in this industry.

Tesla is fuelled only by unbelievable amounts of debt but no means to ever pay that money back. Don't forget that both Mercedes and Toyota were big share holders in Tesla not that long ago. They both sold their stock because they felt they had nothing more to learn.

I give them 5 more years max. Lets talk again in 2023.

Well, BMW, Audi, Jaguar and Renault are all racing electric vehicles in Forumla E, so obviously they are well up the development curve. I am quite certain they all have plans to roll out electric vehicles, but frankly the US may not be on the top of their list. If I were introducing a new type of motor vehicle, I would work out the kinks in places other than the most litigious country in the world.

 

[Nicad]

Apparently people are bailing on the Model 3 because it might be past 2020 when they will make the promised $35,000 Tesla. Ontario just slashed the $14,000 wealthy consumer's subsidy. I'd expect sales in Ontario to fall flat. The Bolt was a good buy with that level of incentive. The Electro Porsche on the Horizon looks amazing

 

[teahead]

until they have:

- chargers everywhere
- fast charging (<15 min).

and gas >$4.50 gal

we're not going to see a whole lot of adopters, thus could be 10 years until Tesla turns a profit.

 

[craterface]

Hard to say. They need to offer a smaller CUV that's under $50k IMHO to compete once Porsche and Volvo and others flood the market w/e-cars.

Do wish there were standards of plugs and power stations across the US.

I can tell you that we have almost never felt the need to charge anywhere other than home. If we roadtrip, we take the Chrysler town and country. For intermediate trips, within FL, like to the Miami airport or to a hotel in Palm Beach, they have chargers. Most of your better hotels have them. We might charge somewhere other than home once or twice a year, yet we have managed to drive the car 17000 miles a year or more.

Most households have two cars and can simply use the gas powered car for road trips. We travel a lot, but since we have to drive six hours just to get out of Florida, we fly.

 

[jmackro]

I like what Tesla did, they for sure changed the car industry for good but I'm absolutely convinced that they have no future..... Tesla is fueled only by unbelievable amounts of debt but no means to ever pay that money back.

It is shocking to me the amount of people that want to see Tesla fail.

I agree with Philippe. "Wanting Tesla to fail" and "facing reality" are two different things. It would be nice if they succeeded, but buying Solar City was probably the final nail in their financial coffin.

Tesla has a very loyal following here in the US, and they have thousands and thousands of pre-orders for the Model 3.

Tesla does have a following here in the US; whether it is a loyal following is debatable. My guess is that if Toyota / Kia / Mercedes were able to offer a competing car, those Model 3 pre-orders would evaporate pretty quickly. Tesla is fortunate that the big automakers are making too much on pick-ups and SUV's to devote much attention to the electric niche. And it is a niche.

My prediction is that like Volvo, the name "Tesla" will be with us for a long time. But Tesla's ownership may move eastward as their financial chickens come home to roost.

 

[CSteve]

I agree with Philippe. "Wanting Tesla to fail" and "facing reality" are two different things. It would be nice if they succeeded, but buying Solar City was probably the final nail in their financial coffin.



Tesla does have a following here in the US; whether it is a loyal following is debatable. My guess is that if Toyota / Kia / Mercedes were able to offer a competing car, those Model 3 pre-orders would evaporate pretty quickly. Tesla is fortunate that the big automakers are making too much on pick-ups and SUV's to devote much attention to the electric niche. And it is a niche.

My prediction is that like Volvo, the name "Tesla" will be with us for a long time. But Tesla's ownership may move eastward as their financial chickens come home to roost.

Markos, speaking of arrogance, let us not forget John Z. DeLorean.

 

[Stevehose]

Elon Musk needs to stay off Twitter and get back to work.

 

[jmackro]

Elon Musk needs to stay off Twitter and get back to work.

Or phrased another way, Tesla needs a more professional CEO in order to advance to the next level. Cowboys are great at the startup stage, but .....

 

[craterface]

This review is pretty strong. I am going to the dealer today in Naples to have a look at the build quality of the model 3.

 

[Nicad]

Great review. If another improvement is achieved in battery performance and cost, I could see jumping aboard. I know I don't need that much power, but I do need AWD and prefer smallish cars. I'd also prefer a traditional dashboard.

 

[jmackro]

I'd also prefer a traditional dashboard.

I have seen Model 3's "in the flesh" and have to agree with Dan Neil that the monitor in the middle of the dashboard just looks dorky. But I'm not in the Model 3's target demographic, and its overwhelming video display probably makes sense to Millenials.

 

[craterface]

Had a chance to check out the 3 yesterday and also sit in a new S and X. First, the seats in the 3 are far better than those in our 2013 Model S. And the seats in the new S and X are even better. Big improvements in the interiors of all the cars. Overall, the 3 seems to be a very compelling package.

If Tesla can sell 200k cars with gross margins of 30 percent, then figure at least 10 grand per car, or 2B gross profit. I think they can sell 200k in the us, 200k in China, and 200k in the ROW. That’s 6B in gross profit.

If they were smart, they would jack up the model 3, put a hatchback on it and a more blunt nose, and call it an SUV.

 

[Ohmess]

I think of these cars as city cars, or more precisely, cars for densely populated areas. In cities, trips are shorter, charging options abound, and concerns about emissions are more prominent.

In addition, they make more sense for families who think about their cars as a fleet (or for folks like Rob Seigel who follow a three car rule). If you have a gasoline or hybrid vehicle available for long trips, then adding an electric to get you to and from work makes a lot of sense (along with a classic car, a convertible, a work in process, an SUV for taking the family to the beach and a track car, of course).

 

[Nicad]

I sat in a Model 3 at the Mall today. Liked the size. Lot's of room in both front and back seats. Great forward view out of the car. A few things jumped out at me. The rear trunk is very large , with a great lower well that would hold a lot of beer, but when you open the trunk, any snow or water on it will dump right in. The fender liners are made out of a very odd material. Almost seems like a plastic fabric. Didn't feel very robust. The door panels looked very poorly made at the top where it meets the sheet metal. Tailights didn't appear to be very tough. The front trunk latch was broken , so they couldn't demo that part unfortunately. The photos I uploaded are of a rubber trim part at the top of the door. Built to a very low standard. Certainly not something you'd find on a Honda fit. This car was $75,000 cdn as it sat. I'd love to try one.