Where is Arde

Arde

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First apologies for being absent lately and depriving my followers from thoughtful remarks and detractors from an easy target.
2020 has been a rollercoaster for many of us, a sort of Best of Times Worst of Times Dickens would say.

I stopped by SFDon's place on Saturday and thought I have to reengage, and what better than some random questions on my mind:

1) Where has Arde been?

2) Is it safe to reopen schools? Would you work in one next month?

3) You are restoring your classic, should you do mechanical first or body/paint first?

4) Is this a good time to join a startup?

5) Who said "more joy shall be in Heaven over one rusty classic restored, than over ninety and nine perfect classics who need nothing".

6) Bet on cash or real estate in the next 24 months?

I will be grading your answers over the week-end. Partial credit for wrong answers if the formulation is sound.
 

nosmonkey

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I was personally hoping for a wheres waldo style book when I clicked on this thread, only with piles of e9 rust replacing a stripy jumper.
 

JFENG

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First apologies for being absent lately and depriving my followers from thoughtful remarks and detractors from an easy target.
2020 has been a rollercoaster for many of us, a sort of Best of Times Worst of Times Dickens would say.

I stopped by SFDon's place on Saturday and thought I have to reengage, and what better than some random questions on my mind:

1) Where has Arde been?

2) Is it safe to reopen schools? Would you work in one next month?

3) You are restoring your classic, should you do mechanical first or body/paint first?

4) Is this a good time to join a startup?

5) Who said "more joy shall be in Heaven over one rusty classic restored, than over ninety and nine perfect classics who need nothing".

6) Bet on cash or real estate in the next 24 months?

I will be grading your answers over the week-end. Partial credit for wrong answers if the formulation is sound.
(2) school situation has no simple answer, and is a classic trade off. Endanger teachers and families but benefit the kids or ... Would you risk your families health to improve 6 months of education for your neighbors 13 year old? If this were the regular flu... easy decision. My wife gets colds and the flu almost every year from the kids in her classrooms. But one of the biggest surges in covid was where she teaches, and at our age and given the potential downside.... we decided she should quit if forced to teach in person before
(1) accurate instant tests are avail.
Or
(2) people are vaccinated

I am a big believer that each school district should make the final decisions. Last month I was in a place where there was only a single case in the whole town. They could probably operate normally with virtually no risk. It where I live.
 

JFENG

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And to be fully cynical, I do not think 4 more months of reduced learning effectiveness will cause long term harm to our kids education. American public school education is already pretty poor relative to other countries. What I would do is stay remote where covid is still a problem, and then extend teaching by 2 hours a day for two semesters after everyone is vaccinated.
 

Nicad

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Don't send Old folks to elementary school. Hide em in the woods. Read today that only 820 Americans out of 330 million with no underlying causes have died between the ages of 0-54. Had a Covid test on Thursday. Wasn't too bad, I can remain in the woods on an island with the Sheepdog till freeze up. Arde is living life to the fullest is my hunch. My Subaru got wrecked last week and is being written off with me getting Peanuts. Lady on cell phone ran into my backside while I was turning left off the highway. I had to comfort her as she was a guilt-ridden wreck.
 

Arde

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Thanks for picking up item #2. Yes, my wife started remote instruction as a special education person last week, and three days into it she already run into a family that had Covid. Had she been in person we would be playing Russian roulette. I approached our family doctor for a letter explaining why she cannot go back to work if required, the doctor pushed back saying she is not different than others, things got very heated to say the least and the doctor agreed to write a letter as long as we find a different doctor...which I will be happy to do.

It is not about children education, it is about the baby seating role schools play so parents can go to work.

On my front I started my own company and we are off to the races. Please send chip micro architects my way if they can walk on water. Remote work is fine, even though we leased offices for distant work and server space...



And to be fully cynical, I do not think 4 more months of reduced learning effectiveness will cause long term harm to our kids education. American public school education is already pretty poor relative to other countries. What I would do is stay remote where covid is still a problem, and then extend teaching by 2 hours a day for two semesters after everyone is vaccinated.
 

JFENG

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Don't send Old folks to elementary school. Hide em in the woods.
My wife has asthma. I fully support her playing it safe and not putting herself in a room with 26 kids with runny noses, dirty hands and a penchant for hugging their teacher.
 

Stan

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1) Where has Arde been? Deep space, maximum possible dispersion

2) Is it safe to reopen schools? Would you work in one next month? NO

3) You are restoring your classic, should you do mechanical first or body/paint first? Mechanical

4) Is this a good time to join a startup? Depends on the product / service

5) Who said "more joy shall be in Heaven over one rusty classic restored, than over ninety and nine perfect classics who need nothing". The Hack Mechanic

6) Bet on cash or real estate in the next 24 months? Real estate
 

CSteve

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I taught at Bucks County Community College for 51 years, 47 of them full-time. Neither my students from last semester nor I would think once about going back into a stuffy, over heated, classroom, breathing on each other, touching surfaces touched by who knows how many. Walking crowded halls.

None of my students would return, nor would I. Fortunately my school has gone all online. I will probably not teach again and avoid, as one colleague put it, "the online miseries."

But I am one of the lucky, no luckiest ones who has a choice. I fear for us all.
 

craterface

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Arde is on the beach in Uruguay.

Do the mechanical first.

I have three kids, one just started at U Michigan, mostly online classes. He's not going to bars or frat parties. If he gets COVID, he is staying there. He and two other guys in his major got an apt. off campus so they won't get kicked out of dorm.

My daughter started public HS today. I think healthy teachers 55 and under are likely fine. I have been working in the clinic this entire time, with a mask, hand sanitizer, and all the patients are masked.

My daughter absolutely needed to go to school for her mental health.

The kids are going to spread it around outside of school when they have their masks off and have their guard down. My daughter's school is half full, since half the kids chose online option. That is awesome.
The real danger is to multi generational households or ones where the parents are obese, diabetic etc. We are staying away from the grandparents. If we had old or vulnerable persons living with us, I would not send my kids to school or allow them to do too much socializing.

Teaching special ed or autistic kids is a major problem. Not sure what to do about that except to have young healthy low risk teachers.

My youngest is a boy in a private middle school. Two weeks into school no issues. Strict mask enforcement, etc.

Depends on the startup, if it has anything to do with working or learning from home, I would say yes.

I am betting on cash. Real estate is very pumped up right now, especially in the country.
 

jmackro

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6) Bet on cash or real estate in the next 24 months?

I'm with Stan: bet on real estate. Yes, real estate is pumped up right now and may well correct. However, with near-zero interest rates and a government motivated to inflate the currency to relieve its debt service obligations, you are more likely lose value holding cash. So it becomes a question of which asset will lose the least - of the two, I'd bet on real estate. Now if equities had been offered as a third choice .....

Having said that, the location and type of your real estate holdings is important. I wouldn't want to own malls or office buildings right now. Coastal California residential property has treated me well historically, but our dear governor may find a way to halt that trend.

Good luck with your new venture, Arde. Sounds exciting.
 

Gary Knox

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Don't send Old folks to elementary school. Hide em in the woods. Read today that only 820 Americans out of 330 million with no underlying causes have died between the ages of 0-54.

Bob,

Where did you read that, I'd like to get a reference if you have one. Being nearly 30 years OVER the upper limit you quote, and with no underlying issues I'm aware of - I'm still going to be very careful!

Gary
 

Nicad

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Bob,

Where did you read that, I'd like to get a reference if you have one. Being nearly 30 years OVER the upper limit you quote, and with no underlying issues I'm aware of - I'm still going to be very careful!

Being careful is being responsible. Cheers!


Here are the sources
A little more digging will take you to this page

 

Arde

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Thanks for the candid and thoughtful answers to my questions. Here is my thinking on each:

1) I have been in the US since February, I was planning to swing by Uruguay's beaches but the epidemic delayed my fundraising and then closed the skies. Uruguay's Covid numbers have been pretty low so one could hunker down there, but then again this virus is quick to humble the most arrogant and change things. I did make a 15 day trip to Telluride and vicinity with guidance from guys here. Cars instead of planes is another good thing about this new reality.

2) Enough said about school danger. We will play that one a month at a time...

3) I am a contrarian on the restoration order, my reason is subjective. Take a junker to your mechanic and he/she will unconsciously calibrate down the level of perfection to the appearance of the car. Take a beautifully painted chassis to your engine builder and you settle tone for a great job.

4) The startup is in tech, you cannot teach an old dog new tricks. Time will tell.

5) Come on guys, you forgot the little book they put in the drawer next to hotel beds. Not the HBO guide.

6) I am with Jay's reasoning, keeping the economy alive means printing, so real estate sounds like a no brainer unless you join too late. Stay tuned, it will be coastal like Jay proposes and will come handy for those coming to Legends (if it ever happens again)...Jay the third option of equities is there. A good book, not in hotel rooms, advises a man to put one half of his assets in cash, the second half in real estate, and the third half in equities...
 
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