the tesla dumb

[CSteve]

Tesla releasing Tesla's numbers to prove Tesla's are safer. We have big Tobacco telling us stories and funding tests about, you guessed it, tobacco. We big Pharm telling us stories and running their own tests about, you guessed it, drugs.

I need hard numbers from an independent source about the safety of self-driving vehicles. Not easy, but essential to finding the truth.

For a long time I questioned whether electric vehicles with their large batteries were actually more efficient and environmentally better than ICEs. So I read a range of articles and came to the conclusion that EVs are better.

I need to see the same rigor when it comes to SD vehicles before I will get behind the wheel of one. And now GM is saying that by the time I am ready to open the door there won't be a steering wheel or a brake pedal.

Well, I guess that's progress.

 

[Arde]

Hey Dick,

Not trying to start a fight, but I do harbor concerns about the rollout of autonomous driving.
...

I think that Musk deserves a lot of blame for the media's obsession with Tesla autopilot safety issues. He's a provocateur with a minimum level of recognition that words have consequences. All the way back in 2016 he claimed that all Tesla's being sold had the equipment and processing power to be self driving. True statement? Perhaps. Misleading statement? I'd say almost certainly. That statement and others like it have almost certainly played a role in Tesla drivers misusing autopilot, which was the point of my initial worry.
..

A few observations.
Autonomous driving will be complicated by heterogeneous manufacturers where algorithms coexist. Algorithmic bullying is the term, if one algorithm knows how the other works, it can take unfair advantage. I drove in times and places where getting through an intersection (with no signals) was ruled by body language, that is, projecting that you are not stopping so the other guy stops. Algorithms can excel at that.
I ilke a future where I drive, and the car backs me up to prevent human errors. Replace the passenger role, not the driver.

Tesla pushing autopilot is a business model unrelated to the energy benefits of electric cars. Charging for software, perhaps as a subscription.
If the innovations occur on the Machine Learning training infrastructure and its algorithms, Musk is right. That happens at Tesla Data Centers. Older cars are future proof (sensors, actuators, and ML inference hardware do not need to be upgraded). Tesla just showed their project Dojo supercomputer done just for ML training improvements. In reality we know from Apple that vendors like an upgrade cycle model, and kind of force older hardware to become obsolete. For cars it may be harder.

There is a connection between FSD and energy/policy. The ability to summon you car to where you are can help a lot with city parking congestion. Your car can drop you in midtown Manhattan and then hang around elsewhere, as if you had your own Uber you can call later. The benign evolution of the model is that every car owner could monetize his/her "driverless Uber", to generate some income from the asset. A more insidious evolution of the model is that Uber/Lyft will become driverless, and a few big players will own and operate fleets of cars without generating driver jobs, and drive down car ownership rates... but that takes me to the slippery topic of minerals, Davos, and universal income (advocated by Musk). I stop here.

 

[Dick Steinkamp]

I'm a Tesla Fanboy. I love my Tesla and what Tesla is bringing to the auto industry. I also love data and the logical conclusions and decisions that accurate data facilitates. I do get a little defensive (a little? ) about the purposely false or misleading data that seems to abound around Tesla and EVs in general. I apologize for getting too defensive here.

Dan is correct that the best of the best have been selected to Beta test FSD.

Tesla gathers an insane amount of data from each of their 3,000,000 cars on the road every day. It is used to develop new features, find software bugs, etc. I get an Over The Air Update about every 2 months on the average.

Data Monetization – Tesla’s Principles for Data-Driven Success

What can mechanical engineering learn from Tesla’s success in monetizing their data? Learn the secrets behind Tesla's Data Driven Services.

blog.usu.com

The data is also used to "grade" drivers. Beta testers are volunteers but have to have a near perfect safety score to be selected.d

Safety Score Beta

The Safety Score Beta is the first release of the Safety Score which is an assessment of your driving behavior based on five metrics called Safety Factors. These are combined to estimate the likelihood that your driving could result in a future collision. We combine your daily Safety Scores (up...

www.tesla.com

Tesla has started selling car insurance using the safety score data and other data points they capture to help determine individual rates.

I agree that Musk is a distraction. I give him some slack due to his Asperger's and Tourette's and the fact that he has done what he has with Tesla, but it's still a distraction. He becomes the guy people love to hate and that rolls over into the product and the company's accomplishments. Lots of banana peels out there thanks to Musk.

The upsides of EV ownership outweigh the downsides for me. Understandably not for everyone.

 

[coupedegrace]

I'm a Tesla Fanboy. I love my Tesla and what Tesla is bringing to the auto industry. I also love data and the logical conclusions and decisions that accurate data facilitates. I do get a little defensive (a little? ) about the purposely false or misleading data that seems to abound around Tesla and EVs in general. I apologize for getting too defensive here.

The upsides of EV ownership outweigh the downsides for me. Understandably not for everyone.

I think Teslas are great cars. As for the looks of some of them, meh. But I can say the same thing about the giant nostrilled new BMWs. Also, to come completely clean, I liked the Bangle-era BMWs so my taste might be considered questionable by some .

As good as they are, I doubt we'll ever own one because my wife can't stand Elon Musk. VW products are also out because she owned one of the polluting turbodiesels that they relentlessly lied about from the 2010s. It seems like the Hyundai group is making pretty rapid strides with their EVs, just as they have with their ICE vehicles. The world of choice in EVs is just getting larger by the day so I'm sure there will soon be something to everyone's liking. I like the Polestar II, at least on paper - haven't driven one. I just wish they'd make a wagon version, but I'm afraid we'll only end with an SUV instead. Come on man, you're Volvo - wagons are in the DNA.

 

[coupedegrace]

A few observations.
Autonomous driving will be complicated by heterogeneous manufacturers where algorithms coexist. Algorithmic bullying is the term, if one algorithm knows how the other works, it can take unfair advantage. I drove in times and places where getting through an intersection (with no signals) was ruled by body language, that is, projecting that you are not stopping so the other guy stops. Algorithms can excel at that.
I ilke a future where I drive, and the car backs me up to prevent human errors. Replace the passenger role, not the driver.

I've wondered about this too. I think your comparison to human drivers is apt - we all behave differently from each other, although probably fairly predictably within our own actions and decisions. I don't know how you behave and you don't know how I do, even though we might behave very consistently, like two different algorithms trying to accomplish the same task.

Tesla pushing autopilot is a business model unrelated to the energy benefits of electric cars. Charging for software, perhaps as a subscription.

If BMW is floating the idea of subscriptions for heated seats, imagine what a company could charge for well developed, safe FSD? And of course he's already done that, seeing their future profitability in the subscription model. As you said, it would be difficult to replicate the upgrade path of smart phones with automobiles. EVs have proven to be quite reliable so far, thus making the need to replace one even less pressing.

 

[Markos]

I agree that Musk is a distraction. I give him some slack due to his Asperger's and Tourette's and the fact that he has done what he has with Tesla, but it's still a distraction. He becomes the guy people love to hate and that rolls over into the product and the company's accomplishments. Lots of banana peels out there thanks to Musk.

Although I have particular disdain for Elon Musk, I think all great startups need to eventually show the founders to the door. In most cases this happens after 10-15 years. The skill set required to take an idea to fruition is vastly different from that of growing and more importantly maturing a company. It’s the same reason why you don’t have R&D programmers fixing bugs on production systems. It’s not outside of their skill set, but certainly outside of their attention span.

I also appreciate the catalytic effect that Tesla had on the EV industry. As far as Tesla cars, I’m underwhelmed. They have terrible panel gap and orange peel paint. They remind me of every other American car using gadgetry to distract from the overall lackluster build.

 

[CSteve]

While we are on the subject of aesthetics here I go. The design is like a discarded, cheap, 5-below(I use the up market $store here) design. The paint looks thin and cheap. Markos has pointed out the panel gap, I suspect a closer look would reveal much more. They look like a blunt instrument coming at me, not a car of any sort.

 

[dave v. in nc]

Woody Allen's vehicle in Sleeper, or perhaps my computer mouse.

 

[CSteve]

Dave, what a memory. Here it is. Woody should sue. Had to take screen shot. Site would not let me download it.

 

[Stevehose]

A more insidious evolution of the model is that Uber/Lyft will become driverless, and a few big players will own and operate fleets of cars without generating driver jobs, and drive down car ownership rates... but that takes me to the slippery topic of minerals, Davos, and universal income (advocated by Musk). I stop here.

Even more insideous is when Davos decides when and where the car will take you.

 

[dbower]

I sold our E34 M5 in 2013 and bought a Model S new at that time. The torque is hypnotic. Back then, Teslas had almost none of the electronic nannies so common today and it is an excellent driver. Tesla service and quality control was superb. They were building their reputation that they have now, sadly, pretty much trashed. Elon is all about cranking out vehicles now to meet shareholder demands, at the expense of service support for current owners. I'm very happy with our early Model S but I would not buy a new Tesla. Their only real advantage today is the supercharger network, but they are getting ready to open that up to all EV's -- which will eliminate that advantage.

 

[HB Chris]

Dave, what a memory. Here it is. Woody should sue. Had to take screen shot. Site would not let me download it.

How about the Orgasmatron?

 

[deQuincey]

Bet they did not put themselves in that formation in the self driving mode. Now Start them all on self driving mode and see if they can form a straight line without scratching a fender. Highly doubt it. Place a couple of child-size dummies among them and watch them run them over.

after some days. is funny how this diverted to a complete different bunch of ideas, good,...

but my point was on the news, a group of owners in the nederlands started a hunger strike to protest against the bad service and quality of their cars, and wrote a tweet to the CEO of tesla explaining the situation probably hoping that he will take care or some action,

the answer of this individual was the twitter that i posted:

now go and buy one of his cars...

 

[Gazz]

Non Tesla but related - My wife has a top spec Genesis GV60 due any day now, the first deliveries to arrive in Australia. I did consider a Tesla but the car itself left me cold and the unreliability stories worried me. The GV60 will be our town car as 95% of our trips are within 40 klms. EVs are far more efficient for short trips with none of the cold start up and low klms stop start travel issues associated with ICEs. Here in Queensland we have extremely potent sunlight so I can hook the car up to our solar array and using the optimiser we can recharge the car for free from the sun. For recharging we can pick our days and times to avoid coinciding with other uses for the array.
I resisted the idea of going over to electric due to uncertainties about the nascent tech however one drive convinced me. Smooth effortless no fuss instantaneous torque. Super quiet and comfortable and loaded to the roof with features. Pictures don't do a GV60 justice as it is quite striking in person and there is palpable sense of quality all through the car. 5 years free servicing and they drop a loan car to our door, pick up the GV60 and return it when it's done.
Worst case - It's a failed idea and we flip it for more than we paid as the wait list is crazy. But I don't think that's going to happen.

So what ICE car do we have for those range anxiety trips - my AMG 507. Fold down the rear seats and it'll pack two suitcases and two golf bags. A true GT.

 

[boonies]

I hadn't heard of the GV60 so I took a look, it is a handsome car.

My wife's Tesla is a competent automobile, but she isn't in love with it. Her preference would be an Audi EV once their range is improved. The fit, finish and features are simply not what she is used to in the Audi's she has driven over the years.

Although we aren't charging on solar at our home, we are able to schedule the charging to off-peak hours so we can take advantage of the lower rates. We use the superchargers when on a long trip, and I have to admit that their current exclusivity and relative ease of access is a difference maker.

A number of years ago Herik Fisker launched an EV that was truly beautiful. Most of his sales were in Europe, I suspect because of the tax incentives and it was simply too early on the adoption curve to survive without the kind of funds that Tesla had access to. He has re-launched with a focus on SUV's and they seem attractive, but haven't seen one in person.

 

[Arde]

I was just looking at the Tesla Plaid Dyno curves... they are impressive. Flat power vs speed, pretty much up to 200 MPH (Tesla Dyno plots are not vs. RPM as there are no gears, RPM=speed).

I am curious about why a car cannot display its own Dyno plots. The RPMs are known by its computer, the speed is known by the computer as the pulses come from the differential digitally, it could then calculate acceleration, power, and torque.
Is it a matter that it is not safe to drive at the limit for a Dyno plot?

 

[boonies]

My BMW F06 (650ix grand coup) had sports sweep gauges on the changable display that would register HP and torque. I suspect manufacturers don’t want to spend on the chips necessary to do graphical plot display, but I am way over my skis on this topic…

 

[CSteve]

Chris, lots of photos of the Orgasmatron. Youtube is the place. The expression on Woody's face as he exits the O is priceless. I wonder how many takes it took to get just that expression.

 

[coupedegrace]

My BMW F06 (650ix grand coup) had sports sweep gauges on the changable display that would register HP and torque. I suspect manufacturers don’t want to spend on the chips necessary to do graphical plot display, but I am way over my skis on this topic…

My parents' F10 535i also had this feature in the infotainment system.

I've noticed that many companies' performance divisions (M, AMG, RS, etc.) now have all kinds of telemetry data available, including things like cornering forces. Since almost all gauge clusters on these cars are now just screens it can now be right in front of the driver. Hopefully they're not looking at the gauges to see what g they just pulled on the exit ramp.

 

[Gazz]

My parents' F10 535i also had this feature in the infotainment system.

I've noticed that many companies' performance divisions (M, AMG, RS, etc.) now have all kinds of telemetry data available, including things like cornering forces. Since almost all gauge clusters on these cars are now just screens it can now be right in front of the driver. Hopefully they're not looking at the gauges to see what g they just pulled on the exit ramp.

2022 Audi RS3 has HP torque and G meter displays. I agree, the only time these readings will be interesting is when you shouldn't be looking at them. The individual tyre pressure display is cool though. Curiously they omit the desirable and useful overhead camera because of a shortage of chips yet include an essentially impractical G meter.

For all the criticism of Elon Musk I have to recognise the astonishing success of what was a start up car company in such a short time. Although, it wouldn't surprise me to find out that Elon Musk is a puppet of an evolving AI algorithm. Now there's a thought!

Self driving will come because AI will improve exponentially. Every driving environment error is added to the AI knowledge growth with the likelihood, far more so than with humans, that it won't be repeated ( in the same way ) again. I've said it before - AI one day will be the greatest challenge to humans in terms of questioning our identity. Eg. SD forces us to question our identity as drivers.
AI is using us humans right now to Beta test its own evolution. The real Westworld is the entire planet.