I have tried to keep up with classic car market trends over the past decade. I never pretend to have expert opinions but more out of curiosity as an enthusiast. This topic has been even more relevant for the past 2.5 years as an actual owner.
While I agree with the above opinions that the economy and recent political decisions have been factors, I think there are many more forces in play here, so I thought I would share some observations - see if y'all agree......
For one, there are many classic cars that are very hot right now. Most that I can think of are more modern classics from the 80s-90s-2000s. Certain Lamborghinis (Countach, Diablo, Murci), Ferraris (360, 430, 458, 550 Maranello, 575 - especially the special edition ones), Porsches (G-body, 964, 993 - let's not even get into the GT2/GT3 discussion), and Ford GT have been rising in value at an astonishing pace with no signs of slowing down.
But there are older classics from the 60s and 70s that used to be hotter but have languished in value along with our beloved E9. Most muscle cars have decreased in value - even some "blue chip" models (Chevelle LS6, big block Corvettes, Trans-Am/Z-28) along with some very iconic V12 Ferraris (330 GTC, Daytona). Some exceptions to this down trend (Dino, very rare muscle car models). It seems as though long-nose Porsche 911s (pre-'74) have also dipped in value. [The Porsche guys on this forum may correct me on that one if I'm off].
In pondering the reasons for this dichotomy I think it comes down to the demographic of the enthusiast. Muscle cars, Colombo V12 Ferraris, E-type Jags, and E9s have an aging and more limited fan base. I have attended a couple of Mecum muscle car auctions (and watched a few more) and the majority of buyers look to be in their 60s, 70s, 80s. I am 61 and suspect that a majority of you are older that me - I welcome correction if I am off on that.
The hotter, more modern classics were new when many of their buyers were teenagers. Of course these newer classics also appeal to older collectors as well but they are the prime targets for the young, rich dudes - hence a much larger catchment of enthusiasts (broader appeal).
We all know how obscure the E9 is, relatively speaking, even to car enthusiasts. How many times have we all had to explain this beautiful coupe to an astonished car nut under the age of 55 - even to those with a large fund of automotive knowledge? But those of us who love this thing love it with passion.... and put up with the high financial and emotional toll that is required to put one right and keep it on the road.
But I do not have much optimism that the coupe and other vintage contemporaries will gather any new strength in the market. I hope that assessment is wrong. But I see an aging (then shrinking) enthusiast base without much new interest from the younger crowd. The silver lining might be that the 1972 Porsche 911S or the 1966 Ferrari 330 GTC that was on your wall as a kid may soon be affordable.
Let me know if I am full of crap.