Any Economists here?

Drew Gregg

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What caused the Texas winter blackouts? I doubt SRV could have written a song about that. The best Blues guitarist could play about the Texas Flood, however.
 

Drew Gregg

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And didn't California just raise their state gasoline tax? It won't take a math expert to figure out what that will do to gas prices in the Golden State.
 

Arde

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And didn't California just raise their state gasoline tax? It won't take a math expert to figure out what that will do to gas prices in the Golden State.
Indeed, the CA per tax gallon is 54 cents, so it dwarves the 18 cent federal gimmick. CA had a 100 Billion dollar tax surplus and instead of removing their 54 cents, they added 3 cents through inflation indexation. Indexation in times of inflation is a terrible way to compound the problem.

When Jeff Bezos, who bought the Washington Post to help level elect a certain party, picks a fight with the same party over the handling of inflation you know it is no longer ideological, it is serious. My father was an economist, University professor, and the chief of the IRS in a smaller country that experienced terrible inflation at the time, and he always told me inflation is an unfair tax on everybody, one should avoid it like the plague.
 

CSteve

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Okay, all you Nardi seat economists have obviously solved the problem. The answer is A, B, C and D. So let me lighten things a bit with a joke. About the Dismal Science.

Harry Truman calls his Chief of Staff into his office and commands him to bring him a one armed economist. "Why on earth should I do that Mr. President" he asked.

Truman replied, everytime I ask an economist a question he gives me an answer. And then he says, "But on the other hand Mr. President."

Two screens of answers might prove his point.
 

tmh

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The government has reduced supply which drives prices higher. The US was energy independent 2 years ago. The government now tries to negotiate with other countries to produce more and blames the price increase on the greedy oil companies. The oil companies don't determine the price of commodities, the market does, supply and demand. Ukraine/Russia also decreased supply which wasn't anticipated. The government is accomplishing its goal of increasing the price of petroleum so the high cost of renewable energy becomes more competitive. The government wanted oil prices to increase, just at a slower pace.
 

Dick Steinkamp

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1. I'm not sure how you figure that renewable energy costs more than fossil fuel energy. For solar, wind, and hydro the fuel is free and the equipment needed to turn it into energy is a lot cheaper than a coal or gas fired power plant and its accompanying infrastructure.

2. The US is the third largest oil exporting country in the world. 18.6 million barrels of oil per day. 20% of the world's total. The oil companies have no wish for US oil to be sold only in the US if that means more supply, lower prices at the pump, and reduced profit.

3. US oil companies have 9,000 unused permits for drilling on federal land and 24 million acres leased of which half are not being utilized. It's pretty easy for them to do the math to determine how much to drill in order to keep prices high and maximize profit.

As you state, the market determines prices. It's all about supply and demand.
 
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BMW Pete

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The government has reduced supply which drives prices higher. The US was energy independent 2 years ago. The government now tries to negotiate with other countries to produce more and blames the price increase on the greedy oil companies. The oil companies don't determine the price of commodities, the market does, supply and demand. Ukraine/Russia also decreased supply which wasn't anticipated. The government is accomplishing its goal of increasing the price of petroleum so the high cost of renewable energy becomes more competitive. The government wanted oil prices to increase, just at a slower pace.
Some interesting comments above, but please, let's stop the political rant guys. No doubt you are a good car owner and a welcome part of the community, which is great, but lets not go down this rat hole people. The question is should the 18c tax be cut, will you see the benefit or not?

I would happily have the conversation on all points mentioned with anybody that wants it off line, but this is not the page for "its the government fault" when the party you dont like is in and praising the party you do like as somehow responsible for the world, notice I say, the world oil price during their administration.

If I may, what I will though answer is your opening comment just so at least you have a little more information, feel free to ignore if it doesn't suit your narrative - The government, this very Administration has asked all the oil companies to up production in the US, all have the capability and all have refused - so a cartel acting in unison against the average American is on this occasion a very real problem, as is the previously mentioned world price of oil.

The government should not be your immediate finger pointing culprit here, The original question of 18c federal tax, although an interesting one, will never meaningfully answer that problem, because the oil companies being international and having the ability to play cat and mouse with consumers, as long as they act in unison, will do as they have always done, paw you and play with you at will.
 
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Arde

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Some interesting comments above, but please, let's stop the political rant guys. No doubt you are a good car owner and a welcome part of the community, which is great, but lets not go down this rat hole people. The question is should the 18c tax be cut, will you see the benefit or not?

I would happily have the conversation on all points mentioned with anybody that wants it off line, but this is not the page for "its the government fault" when the party you dont like is in and praising the party you do like as somehow responsible for the world, notice I say, the world oil price during their administration.

If I may, what I will though answer is your opening comment just so at least you have a little more information, feel free to ignore if it doesn't suit your narrative - The government, this very Administration has asked all the oil companies to up production in the US, all have the capability and all have refused - so a cartel acting in unison against the average American is on this occasion a very real problem, as is the previously mentioned world price of oil.

The government should not be your immediate finger pointing culprit here, The original question of 18c federal tax, although an interesting one, will never meaningfully answer that problem, because the oil companies being international and having the ability to play cat and mouse with consumers, as long as they act in unison, will do as they have always done, paw you and play with you at will.
That is a very thoughtful post.
If indeed oil companies (with production in the US) are colluding, we have the Sherman act, we are not limited to politely asking and dropping the 18 cent gimmick. The prosecution of a violation of the Sherman act unfortunately falls on my government, so any personal displeasure I have with the government du jour will be interpreted as me having a political agenda. I do not, I care about the freedom and prosperity this country had and should have. And we as classic car aficionados should care about the fate of gasoline powered vehicles :).

I enjoy paradoxes, and I point out that OPEC is a cartel that gets away with violating anti-collusion US laws precisely because it is based in Vienna and is not subject to US law. The paradox is that OPEC seems to be helping us and acting responsibly to increase production, while you suggest downstream US refiners are not.
 

BMW Pete

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That is a very thoughtful post.
If indeed oil companies (with production in the US) are colluding, we have the Sherman act, we are not limited to politely asking and dropping the 18 cent gimmick. The prosecution of a violation of the Sherman act unfortunately falls on my government, so any personal displeasure I have with the government du jour will be interpreted as me having a political agenda. I do not, I care about the freedom and prosperity this country had and should have. And we as classic car aficionados should care about the fate of gasoline powered vehicles :).

I enjoy paradoxes, and I point out that OPEC is a cartel that gets away with violating anti-collusion US laws precisely because it is based in Vienna and is not subject to US law. The paradox is that OPEC seems to be helping us and acting responsibly to increase production, while you suggest downstream US refiners are not.
Arde,

I complete agree with you on the Anti Trust issue raised, but my overall comment is, these discussion, as heated and emotional as they can become are for elsewhere on the internet, not on a page where we try and leave political discourse to family Thanksgiving dinner tables :)
 

Arde

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Arde,

I complete agree with you on the Anti Trust issue raised, but my overall comment is, these discussion, as heated and emotional as they can become are for elsewhere on the internet, not on a page where we try and leave political discourse to family Thanksgiving dinner tables :)
Totally agree and will try harder :).
 

Arde

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And while we wait for the winners of the quiz, the G-7 just created another fascinating experiment.
They plan a price cap for Russian oil sold to the non-embargo buyers, to be implemented by the insurers...
This limits the Russian windfall that is spent on the war. It subsidizes China (our top competitor) so that is that.

If the OPEC Saudi pricing to the West was 120$ per barrel before the cap, and the cap is say at 90$ a barrel from Russia to China and India, how much will the Saudi oil drop after the cap is in place (presumably reducing Saudi demand from China and India).

a) Will reduce to exactly 90$, the cap.
b) Will reduce by less than 30$.
c) Will reduce by more than 30$ (non-linear effects).
d) Will not reduce at all.
e) Will actually rise above the pre-cap price.

Hats off to anybody that gets both right.
My bet is d).

This is a first, I am replying to my own post...

Reality turned out stranger than my own fiction, it turns out that Saudis are buying Russian oil. The perfect crime, they buy cheap because Europe is sanctioning Russia, they refine less of their own crude so they can export it to Europe. Given that oil is a fungible commodity, what they are doing is buying cheap sanctioned oil from Russia and selling it to Europe for a markup. But oil is actually being shipped back and forth. The worst of all possible worlds.

I feel like I am in Casablanca.
I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here! [a croupier hands Renault a pile of money]. Croupier: Your winnings, sir.
 
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