I would bid for aftermarket due to lack of symmetry in BMW Logo.
Being involved in some BMW projects I know BMW is very sensitive to specific relationship between circle size. Also font is standardized.
Most of BMW OE parts has also maring like "BMW" staping and some numbering but it is not a rule of thumb for old parts.
Regarding the mudflaps... most of BMW OE were non-symmetic with special cut for the exhaust pipe.
Also OE were not running much outside the car shape which is another point for treating them as aftermarket.
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