Gloomy Saturday

[Drew Gregg]

I was thinking we could let it go long enough for fellow coupe owners to get pissed off at each other then kill it. Then when they see each other in Monterey or Amelia Island they're uncomfortable and don't know what to say.

Amelia Island has no use for any BMW except M cars at the Saturday cars & coffee.

 

[Stan]

We'll all drink to that....

The NH state liquor stores have removed all Russian alcohol from the shelves.
Symbolic, but a good statement

 

[Stan]

Yes, we've been working with NATO for a long time, also been participating in NATO excercises and meetings etc.
But just as I anticipated:

Russia Issues Ominous Warning to Finland, Sweden Should They Join NATO

Ukraine's president confirmed that both countries had offered their support in the fight against Russia.

www.newsweek.com

Nato should allow Finland in now. Russia would have to fight a 2 front war.

 

[Dan Wood]

From the White House
"This coming week, we will launch a multilateral Transatlantic task force to identify, hunt down, and freeze the assets of sanctioned Russian companies and oligarchs – their yachts, their mansions, and any other ill-gotten gains that we can find and freeze under the law."

 

[Stan]

From the White House
"This coming week, we will launch a multilateral Transatlantic task force to identify, hunt down, and freeze the assets of sanctioned Russian companies and oligarchs – their yachts, their mansions, and any other ill-gotten gains that we can find and freeze under the law."

Ras-Putin won't like that

 

[Arde]

Yes.

Here's something to think about. What if we had moved our military hardware to Ukraine. Do you think it would keep Russia out? Relying on the Ukrainian army to use our equipment without our guys there to help? We're not sending our troops into Ukraine. Russia will ride into the country and take what's there, including U.S. military hardware.

And why would we have moved it to Ukraine instead of other NATO countries? What about other conflicts in that part of the world? Did we know that Russia was going to invade Ukraine when we left Afghanistan?

Ukraine has twice kicked out Russian puppet leaders. Putin gets into Crimea. Probably he will try again to replace the President with one of his puppets? How do you protect from that? Maybe strengthen the current President? It did not have to be Ukraine, just use Amazon warehouses nearby in other countries .
The point I am failing to convey is that to me it was obvious for many reasons that the Afghans had no inclination towards a western set of values nor fighting for them. They we just waiting us out like the did many other powers. Ukraine was clearly eager to embrace the West and they are showing with their street level fighting they were going to fight for it.
Are you telling me the American gear cannot be used without our people there? Maybe planes, but Humvees and RPGs are easier than assembling Ikea furniture I hear.

Russia threatening Sweden? Are Swedes also part of Russia now? The guys that made the SAAB airplanes now have about a total of 80 fighter planes and I hear that about 8 are operational. Who will defend Sweden? Neutrality? Maybe. Good luck.

 

[dave v. in nc]

My hope is that the Russian fighting force will question fighting people that worship like them, look like them, eat like them, dress like them, speak the same language, and perhaps have the same uncle Igor. Not what they signed up for. Don't think that they even learned that it wasn't an "exercise" until they saw blood. Probably naive, but it is just my hope. Put down your weapons, park your tanks, and break some bread and have a bottle.

I think that the sanctions will work about as well as they did against the Japanese before Pearl Harbor, tho. "...When cornered, I might cause a fray"....I vaguely remember from a Shakespeare class in summer school...can't remember who said it or about what...

I'm a pessimistic realist, with a dash of sentimental, optimistic hope. Pray for Ukraine.

 

[WALTER]

Ukraine has twice kicked out Russian puppet leaders. Putin gets into Crimea. Probably he will try again to replace the President with one of his puppets? How do you protect from that? Maybe strengthen the current President? It did not have to be Ukraine, just use Amazon warehouses nearby in other countries .
The point I am failing to convey is that to me it was obvious for many reasons that the Afghans had no inclination towards a western set of values nor fighting for them. They we just waiting us out like the did many other powers. Ukraine was clearly eager to embrace the West and they are showing with their street level fighting they were going to fight for it.
Are you telling me the American gear cannot be used without our people there? Maybe planes, but Humvees and RPGs are easier than assembling Ikea furniture I hear.

Russia threatening Sweden? Are Swedes also part of Russia now? The guys that made the SAAB airplanes now have about a total of 80 fighter planes and I hear that about 8 are operational. Who will defend Sweden? Neutrality? Maybe. Good luck.

Arde, it’s not as easy as giving them gear and having the Ukrainians go at it. Giving a country something like the Humvee is like giving someone a horse; nice gift, but do they have a stable, do they have feed, horseshoes, saddles…you get the point, it can a burden more than a gift. Even something as basic as a rifle can be useless without marksmanship training and the right ammo/repair parts. The best thing we can give them now is something they probably don’t have the best of, world class imagery (intel) of what the Russians are doing.
I believe the Russians will find that the invasion is a lot easier than an occupation; imagine if it was your town, city, State that was invaded; you would fight like hell, I think we are seeing the Ukrainians do this, and I back that 100%.

 

[sfdon]

Note the 3 Stratotankers circling over Romania all day and night. The USA is quietly active and helping out.

And there is a flood of private jets heading back to Russia from Europe.. The rich Russians don't want to get stuck in the wrong country.

 

[bavbob]

Sadly, every Russian soldier has been exposed to government run news agencies etc since birth. They are just puppets thinking they are doing the right thing, rather than thinking. That's sad too. Different ways of stealing a life.

 

[Dan Wood]

Ukrainian man offers to tow enemy tank back to Russia after it runs out of fuel

UK intelligence suggests invading Russian forces may be suffering ‘acute logistical difficulties’

www.independent.co.uk

 

[WALTER]

Ukrainian man offers to tow enemy tank back to Russia after it runs out of fuel

UK intelligence suggests invading Russian forces may be suffering ‘acute logistical difficulties’

www.independent.co.uk

Interesting that they are running out of fuel; to paraphrase a famous general, “amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics.”

 

[coupedegrace]

Nato should allow Finland in now. Russia would have to fight a 2 front war.

No really sure the Finn's would be thrilled about being front #2.

 

[Gazz]

"will question fighting people that worship like them, look like them, eat like them, dress like them, speak the same language, and perhaps have the same uncle"

What do you think happens in civil wars which are often the longest and bloodiest?

Putin has too much to lose to back down now.

And don't believe much of what is being portrayed as news during wars.

 

[Arde]

Arde, it’s not as easy as giving them gear and having the Ukrainians go at it. Giving a country something like the Humvee is like giving someone a horse; nice gift, but do they have a stable, do they have feed, horseshoes, saddles…you get the point, it can a burden more than a gift. Even something as basic as a rifle can be useless without marksmanship training and the right ammo/repair parts. The best thing we can give them now is something they probably don’t have the best of, world class imagery (intel) of what the Russians are doing.
I believe the Russians will find that the invasion is a lot easier than an occupation; imagine if it was your town, city, State that was invaded; you would fight like hell, I think we are seeing the Ukrainians do this, and I back that 100%.

Maybe you are right Walter, but the Iranians are pretty good at smuggling weapons for their proxies (Houthies, Hezbollah, etc), Isis caused some serious mayhem with Toyota pickup trucks and automatic rifles mounted in the rear.
The Dutch are sending Stingers for example, I guarantee you they are not sending dutch operators with them:

Netherlands sending 200 Stinger missiles to Ukraine; More military aid en route

The Netherlands will deliver 200 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine as soon as possible, the Cabinet said on Saturday. The decision comes after additional requests from Ukraine for military goods. For this request, a careful, but shortened, assessment against the arms export criteria took...

nltimes.nl

I agree that the Russians will find out it may be hard to keep their gains, at least while their supply lines come from Russia. Once they take over it would be easier to settle in Ukraine.

My frustrations are at our own incompetence, at our failures of imagination of not putting ourselves in the mind of our adversaries. Specifically at the tired slogan that the enemy is rational that highly paid think tanks keep repeating. The rationality of your enemy is a stupid and expensive assumption I rebel against. Putin, by putting Russia's nuclear arsenal in ready state, is proof of that.

 

[Stan]

"will question fighting people that worship like them, look like them, eat like them, dress like them, speak the same language, and perhaps have the same uncle"

What do you think happens in civil wars which are often the longest and bloodiest?

Putin has too much to lose to back down now.

And don't believe much of what is being portrayed as news during wars.

 

[sfdon]

Interesting stuff on the flight tracking network this morning…
number 1 airplane being tracked is Redeye6 out of Ramstein.
the US is watching and listening at the border and shadowed by number 2, a stratotanker. Ukrainians are being fed intel by private satellites and US sources.

 

[Dan Wood]

Interesting stuff on the flight tracking network this morning…
number 1 airplane being tracked is Redeye6 out of Ramstein.
the US is watching and listening at the border and shadowed by number 2, a stratotanker. Ukrainians are being fed intel by private satellites and US sources.

Shhhh, don't tell anyone! I am sure the AWACS are flying also.

 

[HB Chris]

Probably a J-STARS Boeing C-135 with side looking radar developed by Grumman before they were bought by Northrop.

 

[WALTER]

Maybe you are right Walter, but the Iranians are pretty good at smuggling weapons for their proxies (Houthies, Hezbollah, etc), Isis caused some serious mayhem with Toyota pickup trucks and automatic rifles mounted in the rear.
The Dutch are sending Stingers for example, I guarantee you they are not sending dutch operators with them:

Netherlands sending 200 Stinger missiles to Ukraine; More military aid en route

The Netherlands will deliver 200 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine as soon as possible, the Cabinet said on Saturday. The decision comes after additional requests from Ukraine for military goods. For this request, a careful, but shortened, assessment against the arms export criteria took...

nltimes.nl

I agree that the Russians will find out it may be hard to keep their gains, at least while their supply lines come from Russia. Once they take over it would be easier to settle in Ukraine.

My frustrations are at our own incompetence, at our failures of imagination of not putting ourselves in the mind of our adversaries. Specifically at the tired slogan that the enemy is rational that highly paid think tanks keep repeating. The rationality of your enemy is a stupid and expensive assumption I rebel against. Putin, by putting Russia's nuclear arsenal in ready state, is proof of that.

I’ve done security cooperation in Afghanistan, the Middle East, and in Africa; you don’t give a military something without the training that goes into learning that equipment, it could be disaster if you did. It’s all good until the wrong aircraft gets shot down. I couldn’t open the article, but I’m sure whatever the Dutch gave them was the same or very similar to what they use now; if they just gave them Stingers with no background in using them, then that’s irresponsible. The Marine Corps has one unit that uses Anti-Air missiles. They, of course, are given extensive training and even then, RARELY get the real ammo/live fire training.
Putin is a thug and criminal, but he will very predictably act in the interest of maintaining/restoring dominance over former Soviet satellite countries. Even though he is predictable in this manner countering him is still a matter of three dimensional chess.