A Different Take On EVs

cicada

cicada

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Hasn't R&D on gas-powered motors pretty much stopped at most large manufacturers?
 
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x_atlas0

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cicada said:
Hasn't R&D on gas-powered motors pretty much stopped at most large manufacturers?
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Yep, GM basically shut down their Pontiac facility, which had a bunch of powertrain dynos. FCA started killing future ICE work about 3 years ago, so the GMET6, or 'Hurricane' as they decided to call it, will be one of the last new engines they will put out. Ford already said they are phasing it out too.

There's good and bad out of all this, but I will say the bad hurts all existing OEMs pretty hard:
1. Eliminates a major product differentiator
2. Drastically reduces the part count and those associated costs
3. Eliminates an entire generation of powertrain engineers (basically anyone over 40 will be starting from scratch)
4. Suppliers for all those systems and parts (Conti, Delphi, Visteon, Bosch, ZF, etc.) are freaking out, since engine controls and transmissions are their bread and butter

#3 is why I jumped ship a few years back from FCA, they had no major domestic EV program to speak of at the time (other than the Pacifica Hybrid) and nothing major was on the horizon. I knew if I stayed I'd be dead, since I already have 10+ years in ICE support and development. It looks like they finally started moving that way, but it's going to be a rough few years while they get that moving internally.
 
boonies

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coupedegrace

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Whenever I see symbolic gestures like this coming out of legislatures, be they from the left or right, I always think what a paradise it must be there. Clearly they've got nothing more pressing to take care of as demonstrated by the legislators (and their lobbyist friends) spending time on such important matters.
 
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x_atlas0

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coupedegrace said:
Whenever I see symbolic gestures like this coming out of legislatures, be they from the left or right, I always think what a paradise it must be there. Clearly they've got nothing more pressing to take care of as demonstrated by the legislators (and their lobbyist friends) spending time on such important matters.
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True, but if they actually helped to fix problems, how could they run their next campaign on those same promises again, all while blaming 'the other' for their ineffectiveness?

It's something that's been bothering me since Bush Senior, back when I was 6. What's the incentive to actually make government 'work' if they are getting paid just as much for the status quo, and can use the status quo to enrich themselves? I'm not suggesting we implement some sort of 'pay for performance' for congress, but there are so many problems that have persisted and grown for far too long. Something's got to give. Clearly we cannot rely on the better nature of our elected officials. The founding fathers setup the industrial-age machine of our government as a hedge against the flaws of individuals, but that same machine does not provide for effectiveness. I suppose the expectation was that if the government was ineffective, the governed would replace the 'broken' pieces, but that has not happened.

So the question of the day is 'what do we do?' It's an interesting problem, with many possible solutions.
 
JFENG

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x_atlas0 said:
Yep, GM basically shut down their
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Sure, but I think ICE powered cars are still going to be the majority of the global market for at least another 8 years. The best data I’ve seen is for EV sales to reach parity in global sales volume around 2032.

For those of us who tow big heavy things, all current BEVs are still not practical. Perhaps a couple more generations of tech will yield something that can tow 6000lbs with a 275 mile range and recharge in under 30 min. Until then, I’m fairly satisfied with the current state of ICE powertrain technology (gas, diesel, hybrid).

FWIW, I’m all for BEVs for regular commuter vehicles, and have seen properly done scientific studies showing new BEVs have a lower carbon footprint than new ICE vehicles, even when considering birth to death cycle, starting with minerals mined out of the ground and ending with the disposal of end of life.

John
 
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x_atlas0

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JFENG said:
Sure, but I think ICE powered cars are still going to be the majority of the global market for at least another 8 years. The best data I’ve seen is for EV sales to reach parity in global sales volume around 2032.

For those of us who tow big heavy things, all current BEVs are still not practical. Perhaps a couple more generations of tech will yield something that can tow 6000lbs with a 275 mile range and recharge in under 30 min. Until then, I’m fairly satisfied with the current state of ICE powertrain technology (gas, diesel, hybrid).

FWIW, I’m all for BEVs for regular commuter vehicles, and have seen properly done scientific studies showing new BEVs have a lower carbon footprint than new ICE vehicles, even when considering birth to death cycle, starting with minerals mined out of the ground and ending with the disposal of end of life.

John
Click to expand...

John, I concur that BEVs and towing don't mix. The energy density just isn't there. I don't know of any theoretical research that even comes close to the energy density of hydrocarbons, even accounting for the powertrain efficiency improvements reducing the energy density requirements. (but hey, if others know of something, please share!) A hydrogen fuel cell makes a lot of sense in that scenario.

GM and other OEMs shut down the gas engine development because the main reason companies have updated their engines is for emissions compliance. Emissions compliance is driven by CARB and federal requirements and their projected reductions over the next 10 years or so. The fuel economy restrictions are based on the fleet, so more BEVs reduce the effective fuel economy requirements on all the gas cars. This means the engines that have already been created will basically 'carry through' for about another 5-10 years with incremental updates. (changing cats, calibration updates, that sort of thing) I think the companies are banking on solving for more use cases in that time frame.
 
eriknetherlands

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It's just plain funny reading that article with my European (biassed?) background.

Jobs vs the planet?

In the EU we had something along those lines (but environmetaaly the other way around): aroynd 2010 Denmark proposed a total ban on lead in the construction of cars. Lead isn't used solely in batteries, also the black paint around your windscreen has(now "had"..) lead in it, and so did about 100 other things in cars had (tiny) bits of it.

The industry pondered the proposed Dannish law and reacted a few months later: Thank you and we'll suspend selling cars in Denmark if the proposal is adopted & after the phase out perriod.

Proposal dropped a few weeks later.

Moral of the story: perhaps that state will be the Cuba of the 22nd century; everybody will be driving 2010 Camry's as that's the only thing left.....
 
boonies

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@JFENG , I think your statement is fair, even generous. EV sales are accelerating, but still a fraction of ICE sales. A timely article from the Wall Street Journal (requires subscription) says:
  • Headline: " EV's made up 10% of all new car sales worldwide"
  • "Global sales of fully electric vehicles totaled around 7.8 million units, an increase of as much as 68% from the previous year"
  • In the article re. BMW: "Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, the German luxury-car maker, was one of many manufacturers last year to see sales of plug-in models rise even as overall sales tumbled. BMW reported a 5% decline in total new-car sales but saw EV sales more than double last year."
Another consideration will be installed base of ICE vehicles. Consider that the average age of registered vehicles in the US is ~12 years, and if the EV's were to overtake ICE by early to mid 2030's, there will still be 12 years x ~14M ICE vehicles. There will be gas pumps on many street corners for a good many years.
 
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