Game changer?

[Nicad]

If this is as described, I'd think the transition to electric vehicles will be a reality.
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/20...ries-but-will-it-be-good-enough/#more-1524417

 

[mulberryworks]

Ok, so when are you going to put an electric motor in your E9?
This guy did.

 

[Bmachine]

BMW built two e10 (1600) electric cars for the 1972 Munich Olympics. So building an electric e9 is not far fetched from what the factory engineers were thinking at the time.

With all due respect to originality, the conversion offers numerous advantages. The technology is all fairly mature and most of the problems have been solved. Except for one: the cost. At this point, in order to get the equivalent of at least 200hp and 200 ft/lbs of torque with 120 mile range (L.A. to San Diego), the materials alone are going to be at least $20k. The main culprit there is the battery which is still very expensive if you want any kind of range. But those battery prices are coming down all the time so in a few years, as the article above mentions, it might be a very interesting option. And this would finally provide a new lease on life for all those abandoned 4 speed gearboxes...

Wheeler Dealers had a very interesting episode on a conversion they did on a Maserati Biturbo not too long ago.

But one would only want to do that on a second Coupe. Always gotta have an original ICE one first.

 

[Ohmess]

I think this debate over the move to electric powered transportation is fascinating.

One element of this conversion folks don't talk about is the electric generation side of this. The data on this is hard to obtain (in large part because our government doesn't want us to notice this), but here in the US we have been rapidly reducing our capacity to produce electricity by shutting down coal fired power plants. And by law, they have been shut down in a way that they cannot be restarted. Forced energy efficiency (through regulation of consumer items like air conditioners and appliances) has partially offset this decrease so we generally haven't felt the effect of it. (Except for the fact that we can no longer buy inexpensive reliable electric consumer products because of the haste with which these these changes were imposed.)

If we make a massive move to electric cars, however, the demand for electricity will go up sharply. Then, there will be massive upward pressure on prices. And increased production won't be an option given the time it takes to bring new electric generating capacity (of whatever flavor) online. And for those who believe that green energy production will save the day, there is this:

http://www.investors.com/politics/columnists/europes-lesson-teaches-us-dont-go-green/

Rapidly increasing energy prices would make huge segments of US industry noncompetitive; and US consumers are not going to stand for rapidly increasing energy prices (along with brown outs and rolling black outs) in order to enable the adoption of electric cars.

So, I think we are going to have to move slowly on the adoption of electric vehicles even if battery capacity improves. Hybrids probably will have a good long run.

 

[Nicad]

A great example not to emulate is where I live….Ontario. It is a debacle. Our Provincial liberal government bought into solar and wind power in a big way that is proving to be quite useless. We now have the highest priced electricity in North America, and actually pay the bordering states to take our excess when the wind is actually blowing and demand is low. Some of these States have used this cut rate power available to them to lure some of our manufacturing away. It boggles the mind how poorly this was thought out in Ontario, which used to be the economic engine of Canada. Now we have rampant energy poverty, especially in the rural areas that are charged a huge amount for "Delivery" even if they don't have the lights on. Rural folks are heating with pellet stoves now. Unfiltered combustion.
Quebec with their huge installed Hydro power will really push electric cars, and have the clout to get the Feds to offer a big subsidy. Winning formula since Confederation.

 

[Bmachine]

I think this debate over the move to electric powered transportation is fascinating.

One element of this conversion folks don't talk about is the electric generation side of this. The data on this is hard to obtain (in large part because our government doesn't want us to notice this), but here in the US we have been rapidly reducing our capacity to produce electricity by shutting down coal fired power plants. And by law, they have been shut down in a way that they cannot be restarted. Forced energy efficiency (through regulation of consumer items like air conditioners and appliances) has partially offset this decrease so we generally haven't felt the effect of it. (Except for the fact that we can no longer buy inexpensive reliable electric consumer products because of the haste with which these these changes were imposed.)

If we make a massive move to electric cars, however, the demand for electricity will go up sharply. Then, there will be massive upward pressure on prices. And increased production won't be an option given the time it takes to bring new electric generating capacity (of whatever flavor) online.

That is an important subject to consider for sure. But increasing old school energy generation methods is going to be obsolete sooner or later, replaced by more intelligent ideas. Sure, this will take time and there will be bumps on the road. When cars were first developed, horse buggy manufacturers also cried that the end of the world was coming. Same thing here.

But that is changing today already. Like many, I have solar panels on my roof. I use this to recharge my electric car which I use to get to work. I produce more electricity than I use and return that to the grid... So my electric car is actually decreasing electricity demand, not the other way around.

And for those who believe that green energy production will save the day, there is this:

http://www.investors.com/politics/columnists/europes-lesson-teaches-us-dont-go-green/

When reading any "news" posting, it's always wise to consider the source...
Article by Stephen Moore, "formerly of Fox News, currently serving as the distinguished visiting fellow at The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank based in Washington, DC, and advised President Donald Trump during the campaign."
Hardly a neutral observer... ;-)

(PS: Isn't posting political articles against the rules of the forum? So maybe we should stay away from that and just keep exchanging personal ideas on the future of energy.)

Hybrids probably will have a good long run.

Yes, for sure.

 

[jmackro]

Like many, I have solar panels on my roof. I use this to recharge my electric car which I use to get to work. I produce more electricity than I use and return that to the grid... So my electric car is actually decreasing electricity demand, not the other way around.

That is impressive, but I'll bet you are the exception. I suspect that even with subsidies, the capital costs to buy the solar cells, electric car, and various accessories to connect them were significant. It will probably take many years of not buying gasoline and selling electricity back into the grid to recoup those costs.

It's great that you were willing and able to make such a low-return investment. But your model won't scale for the masses.

 

[Bmachine]

That is impressive, but I'll bet you are the exception. I suspect that even with subsidies, the capital costs to buy the solar cells, electric car, and various accessories to connect them were significant. It will probably take many years of not buying gasoline and selling electricity back into the grid to recoup those costs.

It's great that you were willing and able to make such a low-return investment. But your model won't scale for the masses.

Thanks Jay. The capital costs for the solar power was basically zero. Using SolarCity's Power Purchase agreement, it was zero down and I pay a fixed amount of $80 a month. This covers all our electricity, including feeding the car and we are feeding some back to the grid. Granted, there were subsidies at the beginning. But with economies of scale, this soon will not be necessary anymore. As far as the car, my example is not ideal because I was lucky to get a "pilot program" car. But a generally available car like the Chevy Bolt lists at 37k which is not too far from what an average commuter car costs.

In terms of "low-return investment", if you mean financial investment, to me that is short sighted. Gaining or loosing a few hundred or even, if you go extravagant, thousand dollars is insignificant in the long term. To me, what is a huge-return investment, is to try and get as clean a planet for my kids and theirs as possible. This is not the place to get all philosophical and stuff, but let's remember the old saying. "We do not own the earth, we borrow it from our children."

I am curious to hear why you think that "your model won't scale for the masses." Why do you think so?

 

[craterface]

Our family Tesla Model 40 is powered essentially by natural gas, which is what powers our local electric plant. Natural gas is abundant in the US, and will be for the foreseeable future. I can't do solar due to my house having a crazy, irregular roofline and because of our hurricanes. I am hoping that some rubber-y flexible stick-on panels will become available that will fit into my "five vee" style metal roof. There was a company that made some for standing seam roofs, but those were too wide to fit my roof. And then that company folded.
Natural gas is a decent bridge to alternative power. And it comes from the USA, not from countries with unfriendly regimes like Venezuela. And it is much, much cleaner than coal or oil.
Clean coal is possible, but with the new abundance of natural as, it makes zero sense as an investment.
We have put 61,000 miles on our Tesla so far, and it is an amazing machine, although steering feel is lacking.

The other cost factor that is ignored when considering gas versus electric cars is the cost of the sixteen year war in the middle east. If Iraq (and Iran, Saudi) didn't have oil, we wouldn't be there. If all the oil in the world were located in North America, then recent history would be written very differently. We have spent trillions of dollars in our overseas wars, and oil is at the root cause.

 

[Nicad]

I'm probably at about $300-400 Cdn per month when I combine my 2400 sq foot house (In the cheapest delivery zone) and 1100 sq foot shop that I barely use lately. Solar in Ontario would be of not much use from October till MAy. I had the AC on about 7 days last summer. Looks like fracked gas is powering America in the short term.
Thank goodness Nat Gas is relatively cheap. We now have a carbon tax too and the highest non sovereign debt in the world. (twice the debt per person of California) Other than booming Toronto, Ontario is on the ropes energy wise.

Our family Tesla Model 40 is powered essentially by natural gas, which is what powers our local electric plant. Natural gas is abundant in the US, and will be for the foreseeable future. I can't do solar due to my house having a crazy, irregular roofline and because of our hurricanes. I am hoping that some rubber-y flexible stick-on panels will become available that will fit into my "five vee" style metal roof. There was a company that made some for standing seam roofs, but those were too wide to fit my roof. And then that company folded.
Natural gas is a decent bridge to alternative power. And it comes from the USA, not from countries with unfriendly regimes like Venezuela. And it is much, much cleaner than coal or oil.
Clean coal is possible, but with the new abundance of natural as, it makes zero sense as an investment.
We have put 61,000 miles on our Tesla so far, and it is an amazing machine, although steering feel is lacking.

The other cost factor that is ignored when considering gas versus electric cars is the cost of the sixteen year war in the middle east. If Iraq (and Iran, Saudi) didn't have oil, we wouldn't be there. If all the oil in the world were located in North America, then recent history would be written very differently. We have spent trillions of dollars in our overseas wars, and oil is at the root cause.

I remember reading a few years ago that you would have to add $80 per barrel to the cost of the oil to account for the US military costs of defending the middle east.

 

[Bmachine]

Our family Tesla Model 40 is powered essentially by natural gas, which is what powers our local electric plant. Natural gas is abundant in the US, and will be for the foreseeable future. I can't do solar due to my house having a crazy, irregular roofline and because of our hurricanes. I am hoping that some rubber-y flexible stick-on panels will become available that will fit into my "five vee" style metal roof. There was a company that made some for standing seam roofs, but those were too wide to fit my roof. And then that company folded.
Natural gas is a decent bridge to alternative power. And it comes from the USA, not from countries with unfriendly regimes like Venezuela. And it is much, much cleaner than coal or oil.
Clean coal is possible, but with the new abundance of natural as, it makes zero sense as an investment.
We have put 61,000 miles on our Tesla so far, and it is an amazing machine, although steering feel is lacking.

The other cost factor that is ignored when considering gas versus electric cars is the cost of the sixteen year war in the middle east. If Iraq (and Iran, Saudi) didn't have oil, we wouldn't be there. If all the oil in the world were located in North America, then recent history would be written very differently. We have spent trillions of dollars in our overseas wars, and oil is at the root cause.

Very good analysis.
As far as options for irregular roofs, have you seen this?

http://www.solarcity.com/residential/solar-roof

 

[craterface]

Yes, it's a possibility. But our roof is far more irregular than the the one pictured. And the south facing part of our roof is very small and irregular. We will see.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[rsporsche]

that's a nice looking product Bo ... thanks for sharing. i will look into this. i too have a very small south facing roof ... i have long east + west facing roofs ... and several very large trees (well now i have a few less after removing 2 large ones last fall)

 

[Nicad]

This scenario in a Nissan Leaf seems like Hell to me.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...tric-circuit-in-a-nissan-leaf/article34308796

 

[Bwana]

This scenario in a Nissan Leaf seems like Hell to me.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...tric-circuit-in-a-nissan-leaf/article34308796

Interesting story, thanks.

<rant on>

Back when these electric cars first started out, there was some sort of customer survey of how the car was expected to be outfitted. I figured a super cheap electric car (~$6,000) would be excellent for commuting (the majority of what cars are used for) so 100 mile range would be more than enough. So I wanted a totally stripped down version, heater, A/C, and stereo only, the rest a basic, low cost box. No handling, skinny hard tires, Lada interior features. Save the Coupe or the e39 for cross country trips like vacations. Turns out the survey had the car totally tricked out with all the options and so the base model was north of $35,000 and could barely go 125 miles. Who would want one?

Then, I was extremely disappointed to see that not one of the manufacturers had the idea of interchangeable batteries. I had the idea you could pull up to a "filling station", some sort of machine would remove the battery pack from the bottom of your car and replace it with a charged one. Fully automatic, positioning much like that of a car wash, less than 5 minutes from pull in to drive out, and probably time than it takes to fill it with gasoline. And all electric cars would have the same battery configuration so it would be plug and drive, didn't matter what the manufacturer was. The discharged battery would go into some sort of revolving rack with a couple of hundred others and get recharged as it went around to the next reloading position. Battery replacement stations everywhere, no waiting. Easy peasy. But noooo, each manufacturer has to spend zillions of their own money to get the latest, longest range proprietary batteries so you're stuck with their product. At least, based on the article, somebody has required that the plug-ins are standard.

<rant off>

I'm out of step as usual I guess....

 

[Nicad]

Well the Tesla battery is rated as swappable (Theoretically in 90 seconds)…..but from what I just read in Business Insider, it was only to qualify for extra California zero emissions credits , which earned it $66 million in 2014.