Soft Market, you bet.

CSteve

CSteve

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Curious, I went to BaT and looked at the 48 past auctions. Last sale date: 10/24/23. Just 10 months ago.

Number of coupes advertised for sale on BaT(excluding CSLs) 48.

Number of coupes that did not make reserve: 21

Six of the cars that sold were No Reserve

The cheapest, a No Reserve Project: $22,000

The most expensive: $180,000

If you add the coupes that did not make Reserve: 21 and the No Reserve cars that amounts to shy of half the coupes sold less one.

Your thoughts?

Steve
 
In my opinion it's too early to claim "soft". Recovery from the insane COVID inflation yes, and that isn't isolated to E9.
All the vintage cars on my shopping list have come down this year.
 
I have been looking through many of the recent CS / CSi / CSL auctions on BaT. what i have noticed is that most of the coupes with high attention to detail (not necessarily original / concours) and have great photography have done well. looking at CSi, there were 12 sold for an avg of 111.9k and 5 that RNM for an avg of 90.4k. interesting was that there were 3 Oldenzaal cars that didn't clear reserves and one of them bid to 138k. only 1 oldenzaal cars sold for 100k the high water was a polaris that IvoChristoph sold for 180k in Feb 24.

that being said, the 2800cs / 3.0cs auctions are different animals. CSL - i noticed that 8 cleared and 3 RNM ... one of the RNM was also oldenzaal.
 
"The Hagerty Market Rating just experienced its largest drop of the year, decreasing 1.26 points this month to its current value of 63.5. This is the lowest the Market Rating has been in over three years, and it shows no signs of slowing its descent.

When adjusting for inflation, the Median Sale Price is currently at its lowest value since we added this component to the Market Rating over 12 years ago."



(A car that did 100k in 2020 would have to do over 120k today just to break even with the 2020 sale)

www.hagerty.com

In a Year of Decreases, the Hagerty Market Rating Sees Its Biggest Drop So Far - Hagerty Media

The Hagerty Market Rating measures the current status of the collector car market in terms of activity or “heat,” directional momentum, and the underlying strength of the market. It is expressed as a closed 0-100 number with a corresponding open-ended index (like the DJIA or NASDAQ Composite)...
www.hagerty.com www.hagerty.com

Inflation Calculator | Find US Dollar's Value From 1913-2024

Easily calculate how the buying power of the U.S. dollar has changed from 1913 to 2024. Get inflation rates and U.S. inflation news.
www.usinflationcalculator.com www.usinflationcalculator.com
 
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Fed Funds rate went from 0.08% in Feb 2022 to 5.33% in July 2023, and has remained at 5.33% a year now. This has made lots and lots of business deals unprofitable. Add to that the impact of work from home on commercial real estate, and we are seeing in the classic car market a reflection of the need to adjust to a vastly different investment environment.
 
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Ohmess said:
Fed Funds rates went from 0.08% in Feb 2022 to 5.33% in July 2023, and have remained at 5.33% a year now. This has made lots and lots of business deals unprofitable. Add to that the impact of work from home on commercial real estate, and we are seeing in the classic car market a reflection of the need to adjust to a vastly different investment environment.
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Agree. Although there are buying opportunities in the collector car market now (and maybe even better ones later if you trust Hagerty's projections), if you believe the collector car market will come back at some point and if inflation doesn't eat up all the gains.
 
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Dick Steinkamp said:
..... if you believe the collector car market will come back at some point and if inflation doesn't eat up all the gains.
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... because tomorrow's automotive enthusiasts will be more interested in 50+ year old cars? I wouldn't count on that. We need to consider demographic, as well as economic factors. Interest in our old relics may have peaked.

I suspect that the most recent 48 e9's listed on BaT provide too small a sample to draw any definitive conclusions; the quality of the cars and their presentations on BaT vary so widely that it's risky to view them as a single group. Hagerty's conclusions for the entire collector car market may be more predictive.
 
Ohmess said:
Fed Funds rate went from 0.08% in Feb 2022 to 5.33% in July 2023, and has remained at 5.33% a year now. This has made lots and lots of business deals unprofitable. Add to that the impact of work from home on commercial real estate, and we are seeing in the classic car market a reflection of the need to adjust to a vastly different investment environment.
Click to expand...
Indeed. I naively thought that Classic cars, just like gold, would be a hedge against inflation and dollar currency weakness. I was wrong again... Gold did fine though.
 
i haven't followed the value of gold that closely - but in 2015 gold was about 1300 / oz. now its about 2400 / oz. as @jmackro stated, with the small market share and widely varied conditions, its hard to compare.
one thing to remember, there is a different price for selling gold than buying gold ... they get their fees coming and going.
 
jmackro said:
... because tomorrow's automotive enthusiasts will be more interested in 50+ year old cars? I wouldn't count on that. We need to consider demographic, as well as economic factors. Interest in our old relics may have peaked.

I suspect that the most recent 48 e9's listed on BaT provide too small a sample to draw any definitive conclusions; the quality of the cars and their presentations on BaT vary so widely that it's risky to view them as a single group. Hagerty's conclusions for the entire collector car market may be more predictive.
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While I somewhat agree that it’s a small sample size. So is the market.

Its definitely trending down. Which indicates a blip or correction. But your first point is spot on.

Demographic wise…, the collector car market is in another shift. Just like brass cars falling out of favor to a point. These will too. Hell the age we are proves that.
 
According to Hagerty valuation data (subscription required for valuation tables) all conditions non CSL e9’s are selling 18%, below what they were in July, 2023. On average of course. They look at all public sales, not just BaT. Condition 1-2 2002s (non tii) are only down 1.5% in the last 12 months. Lower rated 02’s have lost 15%. 1-2 condition e3s are UP 4%, lesser ones are down 10%. NK sedans are pretty much the same as they were a year ago. Even 507’s are down 4%
Lamborghini Miura’s that were selling for $2.6 million a year ago are up $300k. So theres always blue chip exceptions.;)

While it’s always nice when our cars appreciate in value, that’s not why I own them. I’ve loved these cars since I was 19 and bought my first 2002 for $1500 In 1979. I enjoy driving them and working on them. Meeting other owners who feel the same way and love talking cars is what this hobby is all about.
I’m semi-retired and hope to be fully retired in a few years. Happily that eventual retirement does not depend on the value of my cars. That doesn’t make them any less valuable to me or my piece of mind. I like having them around.

www.hagerty.com

Which Collector Cars Are Faring Best in a Picky Market? - Hagerty Media

With the latest update of the Hagerty Price Guide, seven of the 11 indexes are down year-over-year. Changes are minimal, but nuanced.
www.hagerty.com www.hagerty.com
 
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I don't have any data to back this up, but I also think the sharp run up in prices of our cars two to three years ago drew more cars onto the market and created an increase in speculative restorations. These two factors increased the supply of coupes, creating a downward effect on prices.
 
Here are the number of E9s offered on BaT. I would guess BaT is by far the biggest single source of E9 sales...maybe = to or > than all other sources combined?...

2018 22
2019 32
2020 38
2021 48
2022 49
2023 68
2024 62 (36 actual ytd divided by 7 x12)

Supports Chris' theory.
 
Ohmess said:
I don't have any data to back this up, but I also think the sharp run up in prices of our cars two to three years ago drew more cars onto the market and created an increase in speculative restorations. These two factors increased the supply of coupes, creating a downward effect on prices.
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we know of a couple of people who imported cars from Europe at the top of the market hoping to capture bigger rewards ... we know how that is working out for most of them.
 
jmackro said:
Gold is a whole lot cheaper to store than vintage cars. Plus, its tires don't go flat, batteries don't go dead.
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Store? I assume people invest in gold through an ETF, no need to store ingots.
There is a mantra for lost gold (agasteshwara mantram), but no mantra for E9 losses.
 
Arde said:
I assume people invest in gold through an ETF, no need to store ingots.
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Not if your portfolio includes some doomsday physical gold like coins or bars under your bed. Even if you have a physical gold fund (I bough SGOL when gold was $1700) there is the chance that you never get your hands on it when the world goes nuclear.
 
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