The future of the automobile?

[Tails]

Big news yesterday, GM is closing 4 SUV and Truck plants. The 4 plants combined build more then 700,000 trucks and SUVs per year, or an astonishing 40% of their yearly output.

Thats a big chunk of their production, almost half (if the news story I read had the numbers correct). I know that this site is mainly a coupe site, but I have seen that almost everyone has something besides a coupe.

So here is a good question for everyone. What will automobiles look like in 10 years? Will smaller and more efficient cars overtake the market? And not just cars like the Prius, I'm talking cars closer to the upcoming Chevy volt, and other concept cars getting 50+ MPG. One car competing in a cross country race gets an amazing 300 MPG (not a mistype), and in a 10 gallon tank could possibly cross the whole United States, on one tank of gas.

And then where does that leave older cars? I have no intention of trading in my 1986 BMW 535i, its the second car I have ever owned, and I love the old girl too much to trade her in for a 50 MPG or more car, not to mention I could not afford such a car. Their talking about a price range of $25-$50,000 USD for some of these high economy cars.

I know damn well my stepfather would never trade his 73' Lotus Europa for anything. granted that can get in excess of 40 MPG at times (its only 1500 lbs).

What will we see on the streets in 10 years? I believe the SUV and Truck are a endangered breed. A select few people who use large trucks and SUVs for towing will keep them, my family has a 2800 pound tent trailer for camping, we need something large to pull that (well, not really that large, a Super Duty would be serious overkill). Maybe even Semi drivers will fuel a need for more economic Semi's, at over $1,000 per tank of gas at 10 MPG, it gets expensive fast. But how do you increase your mileage and still pull the legal max weight of 80,000 pounds?

Just curious what everyone's opinion is. Maybe in 15 years or so you will be able to buy conversion kits for some popular old car models, converting to either super efficient, or a whole new type of fuel completely.

 

[Roland Grant]

The future

Good question...

The future has got to be smaller cars - the truck RV thing is uniquely American I believe. GM will need to invest some time and money in designing stuff that's more efficient. If they don't then someone else will and what's more they will import it too ('Market forces'). All of us here clearly don't have a problem with imports - we drive them, albeit very old ones.

I just filled up with diesel this morning in a highly efficient modern BMW = £82 - £1.30 per litre - £5.90per gallon. Double that for US $ equivalent. (50% of our price goes straight to the government in tax in the UK - 'unfair Market Forces').

We're already in the *hit in this country - could this be your future too? Wasn't it the last fuel bubble that brought in the 55 mph speed limit to the US? Perhaps that will reappear, or are US vested interests in home grown oil revenue too strong to allow this to happen?

Regards

RG

 

[Malc]

Actually 65% is tax

As to running older cars, well If you keep it going longer than it's design life, about 10 years, then your doing the environment a favour.
Basically you are recycling the car more efficiently, especially as it has already been built. The amount of energy used, plus the impact, to make a new car even the so called hybrid ones is enormous.
The way the UK is starting to tax vehicles also makes it more attractive to keep an old car going unless you live in London and possibly Edinburgh in the future.
There are lots of issues thrown up. What to do in rural areas, cheaper public transport that actually works, the list goes on.

I do visit the US a lot in my work (oh dear carbon miles :wink: ) and I am always amazed at the number of pickup trucks which appear to be used just to commute and not to haul loads around all day and of cause the monster SUVs with just the driver. In addition the number that are left running while parked is amazing to me too.
Well you pays your money and takes your choice. So if people cannot afford to run large vehicles then they will buy more efficient (not always smaller) ones. GM and the rest will have to respond or die. They created the market for these vehicles and now it's gone.

One further point is that there really isn't a shortage of oil or even refined products. Much of the recent increase is due to speculation. Yes those folk in the stock exchanges and commodity markets around the world are making a shed load of money by gambling on the price.
I should know, I work in the oil industry

 

[Tails]

I sure do hope that SUV's and Truck's start to phase out. Not in commercial lines however, our company trucks (I work for Fastenal) burn a crapload of Gas, and cost well over $120 for a tank of gas. But for us, we need the space they provide. At least once a month (more like 10 times this month) we have either severly overloaded the trucks or filled the whole pickup bed with crap that needed to be either delivered or moved between stores

But as far as a daily driver, there is no reason what so ever that people need to drive a big bad SUV or Truck every day. maybe if you have to take a 4WD road to work everyday, but just because there are leaved on your street does not mean you need one. here in America, that seems to be a big problem.

There has been much talk about downsizing our dependence on foreign oil (in the US I mean) but very few people overall seem to be willing to do anything about it. like I said, my daily driver is my 86' 535i. Its gets a rather average 22-26 MPG, which is better then I can say for the rest of my family's cars (besides the lotus, which is being rebuilt). I would love to get a car that could get huge mileage, but for one I cant afford it (I have college to pay for after all) and I love my old BMW too much to sell the old girl.

But I hope that overall, in the next 10-20 years, the US begins to catch up with other nations, such as the members of the EU, Australia, China, plus all ther other places where mileage standards are far above what we have in America. Were called the richest country on Earth all the time, but as of yet we are unwilling to comit ourselves to finding an alternative source on energy.

Oil will just keep going up. Eventually, in the next few hundred years, if not sooner, it will be uneconimical for us to keep going after oil. The easy stuff is long gone already. And if we do not have an alternative energy source ready and waiting, were in for a world of hurt.

Oil will never truly run out, there will always be oil, and gas for that matter, but I hope that we can continue our current way of life, but with something a little greener powering our species. We will have to wait and see.