Tariffs

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ScottAndrews said:
The problem is that asking forgiveness is pretty hard when you have alienated swaths of scientists who are now moving their research to countries that actually value it.
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Scott I am afraid we are very far from that concern. I worked my entire career with many talented Chinese and Russian engineers and scientists. They come for the US lifestyle and career opportunities, not for Federal Funding. Overall there are close to 6M Chinese in the US and 100.00 Americans in China. Similarly with another talented group hailing from India. When you see migration trends inverting let me know :).

I view this as part of a cleanup and cleansing process, and the bureaucracy has a strong survival behavior (in public and private spheres), thus the Machiavellian advice (in a good sense) of doing all the hurtful part swiftly and only once.
 
Shopteacher said:
47$ on a 165.00 purchase from Walloth. Bill came from UPS with a threat to turn it over to a collection agency if it hadn’t already been done. This was my first notice, which I paid promptly.
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This happened to me with the group buy on strut bars (which cumulated to an amount where the tariffs on UK imports applied). In theory, shipping companies should delay delivery until tariffs are collected. With one time deliveries to individual consumers and small amounts of tariffs, it would be more expensive to delay shipment, warehouse the goods and create a mechanism to initiate delivery after payment, so they pay the tariff and take a chance they won't get paid back. And they will be very persistent about repayment.

They won't invest in creating procedures to address this until they have more certainty about where this will all shake out.
 
Look, we've been getting taken advantage of by many countries on tariffs for years. That is not just talking points, that is a fact. So, if the countries that have been taking advantage of us get a little taste of their own medicine with some short term pain, I am fine with that. In the end I think this will benefit the American worker and people. There are many countries that will be coming to the table still and the big ones and smart ones have already started negotiations and offering MAJOR concessions and investment in the good ol' US of A. I think you are being a bit pessimistic in your view...and again, that's fine. Good conversation.

"Best not ask your surgeon to use that approach when your life or livelihood depend on it... Just sayin'"

- I never ask anyone to use that approach. But I've found it does work better for me, in a lot of circumstances...people seem to have a hard time making big, difficult, decisions these days, so I make it for them and move on.
 
the real truth of the matter is that we haven't made most things here in the USA for years ... i mean decades - face it, most large companies outsourced their manufacturing labor to significantly reduce their costs ... so it wasn't a governmental thing, it was a big business thing. the American worker had to find new sources of income. so for decades we have been a consumer country as we didn't have much to sell in other countries except for Boeing jets, military jets + equipment, cars, food and technology. since there isn't a lot of competition for big jets and military hardware, the USA found issues in some countries for selling food items (Japan and apples comes to mind). this is not a blue vs. red thing whatsoever. trying to create some fair competition would be a great thing, but i question whether its lip service or just a bargaining tool as we all know it takes years to create manufacturing and refine the product. our other big industry is automobiles, but god knows many other countries are much better at it - this afterall is a forum based on a couple of particular German cars.
 
Nachtycoupe said:
Look, we've been getting taken advantage of by many countries on tariffs for years. That is not just talking points, that is a fact. So, if the countries that have been taking advantage of us get a little taste of their own medicine with some short term pain, I am fine with that. In the end I think this will benefit the American worker and people. There are many countries that will be coming to the table still and the big ones and smart ones have already started negotiations and offering MAJOR concessions and investment in the good ol' US of A. I think you are being a bit pessimistic in your view...and again, that's fine. Good conversation.

"Best not ask your surgeon to use that approach when your life or livelihood depend on it... Just sayin'"

- I never ask anyone to use that approach. But I've found it does work better for me, in a lot of circumstances...people seem to have a hard time making big, difficult, decisions these days, so I make it for them and move on.
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To rsporche's point, a lot of US goods manufacturing was off-shored decades ago. Cost of living has a price, and nobody wants to spend $400 on a shirt they could buy from Vietnam for $40. We are not going to start building shoe factories, or making Tupperware in Ohio.. And in the unlikely event that something like that was to occur, it will create nearly zero jobs because it will be nearly 100% automated (the only jobs being tech jobs running the automated factory). Pretty much any job that does not require specialized skills, either physical or intellectual, will either be off-shored, or automated, so imposing tariffs that we all must pay to somehow bring "manufacturing jobs" back here is a naive pipedream. How would a worker paid $7.25 per hour afford to buy a product that costs 1.8X the price it would otherwise be when manufactured in China and imported without tariffs? Truth is that tariffs will hurt those consumers at the bottom the most, and those are the folks who were supposed to benefit.

Trade deficits sound like a problem (that pesky word "deficit" seems so negative), but in reality they are pretty much meaningless. As Rand Paul noted recently, "I have a trade deficit with my grocery store!". There is no rule that says that every transaction must be zero sum. I can buy groceries using cash I make selling technical services. The grocery store does not need or want my services, but some company being sued for patent infringement does. Companies like Apple pay me to help them avoid high judgement costs, and in return they sell iPhones to folks who work at the grocery store that use thier paychecks to buy a phone.. Part of that paycheck came from me buying groceries...It all goes around, and there is absolutely no requirement or even need that every party is totally square with every other party (in terms of "I spent X with you, so you must spend X with me"). Same exact process plays out internationally.

This argument that other countries have been "ripping us off" is just a red herring. If we have been being so heavily ripped off, then how is it that we are the largest and richest country in the world? Whatever we collectively had been doing seemed to have been working just fine up to a few months ago. We have gone from 2.5% GDP GROWTH to 0.5% CONTRACTION..in 90 days! YIKES!! And I suspect when May inflation numbers come out we will be looking directly into the maw of the dread "stagflation".

"major concessions"... We had no tariffs with or from the UK. We now have 10%.. The"big win" here was that Trump lit a fire with 25% tariffs, burned part of the house down, and then put 90% of the fire out.. and takes credit for a big win... There are no winners other than the governments who can now exact a new tax from the consumers. The losers are the consumers in both the US and the UK... Same goes for many of the other "deals" that are yet to be realized...
 
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when i heard Trump's first 'i really love tariffs' and i would really like to see us have an 'economy like the late 1800s' ... you get a clearer picture. at that time, there was no income tax and there were tariffs on imports ... so to me, he has transposed that if you had tariffs, you could do away with income tax. well the answer is at most - perhaps ... if we didn't have 30t of debt to pay for it might be possible. and being that both sides of the aisle have added their share to the debt, not a political statement. i'm with Scott about the 'ripping us off for years' comment - please pay no attention to the man behind the green curtain ... or those aren't the droids you are looking for. the problem is that we have developed such an upside down country with the majority of income and wealth being held by a very small group of people. if we (as a country) aren't careful, we could end up like many other countries when this has happened ... revolution, where the wealthy become the 'hunted'. if i had one bit of advice to the current administration, it would be ... don't upset the apple cart too much ... and avoid the growing potential of a revolt. most 'strongmen' are in dictatorships and they sooner or later fall out of power / favor. history is littered with their past ... their sustainability is generally short in a democracy.
 
To both Scott's, I like the Rand Paul quote and the Star Wars reference...huge fans of both.

On a side note, to get back to BMW's and away from all this crap about tariff's. I say that in gest.

Scott, I love that you are from Petaluma...know it well, went to Santa Rosa High School and Jr. College and drove through there to surf in Bodega Bay and beyond when there was nothing but apple trees, hardly any vineyards, and trust me I love vineyards and wine. I made the 96pt. rated 2012 Revana Estate Cab. Actually made it but didn't do the blending which is what Thomas Brown, Heidi Barrett, and my high school buddy Tom Garrett of Dakota Shy and of Detert Family Vineyard notoriety which his Grandmother started get all the credit for that. They are the ones that make the big bucks! I was just the grunt making it.

Anyhow Andrews.... it reminded me of BMW's and a better subject than tariffs etc: do you know Sean Casey of Casey Motorsports inn Petaluma? He is a super cool dude and kind of a defacto BMW 2002 Turbo expert in the country. I knew him since he had his fist Turbo back in either high school or Jr. College days. If I recall, he is originally from Marin Co. My friend Tony had a coupe, Fjord Blue and I had my Golf 2002 back then. My first BMW, 16 years old but didn't meet Sean until a little later. I still remember him racing Tony in the coupe and he won that race going up an incline, onto the 101 fwy. We had a cool "click" of BMW friends that used to tear it up together, mostly from North Bay Bavarian at the time. My Dad's shop was at the end of the street so I have known Rick Rowe for years. Good guy to know as well if you haven't met him yet.

If you don't know Sean (which I'm sure you do), stop by and say hi. If not, worth a trip to check out his shop. Last I remember he is downtown Petaluma. I love it there...cheers! Love you guys! -Shane
 
Nachtycoupe said:
To both Scott's, I like the Rand Paul quote and the Star Wars reference...huge fans of both.

On a side note, to get back to BMW's and away from all this crap about tariff's. I say that in gest.

Scott, I love that you are from Petaluma...know it well, went to Santa Rosa High School and Jr. College and drove through there to surf in Bodega Bay and beyond when there was nothing but apple trees, hardly any vineyards, and trust me I love vineyards and wine. I made the 96pt. rated 2012 Revana Estate Cab. Actually made it but didn't do the blending which is what Thomas Brown, Heidi Barrett, and my high school buddy Tom Garrett of Dakota Shy and of Detert Family Vineyard notoriety which his Grandmother started get all the credit for that. They are the ones that make the big bucks! I was just the grunt making it.

Anyhow Andrews.... it reminded me of BMW's and a better subject than tariffs etc: do you know Sean Casey of Casey Motorsports inn Petaluma? He is a super cool dude and kind of a defacto BMW 2002 Turbo expert in the country. I knew him since he had his fist Turbo back in either high school or Jr. College days. If I recall, he is originally from Marin Co. My friend Tony had a coupe, Fjord Blue and I had my Golf 2002 back then. My first BMW, 16 years old but didn't meet Sean until a little later. I still remember him racing Tony in the coupe and he won that race going up an incline, onto the 101 fwy. We had a cool "click" of BMW friends that used to tear it up together, mostly from North Bay Bavarian at the time. My Dad's shop was at the end of the street so I have known Rick Rowe for years. Good guy to know as well if you haven't met him yet.

If you don't know Sean (which I'm sure you do), stop by and say hi. If not, worth a trip to check out his shop. Last I remember he is downtown Petaluma. I love it there...cheers! Love you guys! -Shane
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I have not actually met Sean, but his shop is about 1/2 mile from my house. I drive past it nearly every day. A neighbor, Mark Wicker, who drives a very nice Laguna Blau M3, has introduced us informally, so we know "of" each other, but I have just been too busy to get down there to talk with him. I have a 1980 Euro 635 that I worked out a smog control circuit for so I can use a CAT and pass CA smog. Mark keeps suggesting I show that to Sean for a couple of his clients with hard-to-smog cars..

We moved to Petaluma in 2009 from Los Altos. Since then the wine country has steadily encroached (the Petaluma Gap is a fairly recent AVA). Never crossed paths with Heidi Barrett, but I gather she is connected to Bo Barrett of Ch. Montelena fame. We used to go to Napa back in the early 80's and visit with Mike Grgich, when Grgich-Hills was a new thing. He would sign every bottle. Lovely man, as long as you kept a close eye on your wife/girlfriend! Being a chardonnay fan, my current fave is MacRostie. Although I have been known to enjoy a few George de Latour (Beaulieu), and Heitz cabs back in the days...

BTW, I normally think Rand Paul is an idiot. But, I'll admit he is at least not a MAGA idiot...But in this instance, he is correct.

Cheers,
Scott
 
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Here’s our case study. We have a few Chinese packaging suppliers - they are eating the tariff and not passing it to us. We produce white label gummies for vitamin/supplement brands (and THC :cool:) and those that were having their finished product made in China have come to us to produce domestically and we now don’t have the capacity to produce them all until we add more lines.
 
Here's a thoughtful, data supported article by Nobel Laureate economist Paul Krugman. Kriugman won the Nobel prize for this work in "New Trade Theory and New Economic Geography". Somehow I think he is more insightful about this topic that your average guy onthe street, or 47's trade advisor Peter "I hate trade" Navarro.

The takeaway is that recent movement on tariffs still leaves us in a radically different place than we were pre-tariff, and the result will be inflation and economic contraction. I see another 10 point drop in the market when this reality sets in.
 

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Stevehose said:
Here’s our case study. We have a few Chinese packaging suppliers - they are eating the tariff and not passing it to us. We produce white label gummies for vitamin/supplement brands (and THC :cool:) and those that were having their finished product made in China have come to us to produce domestically and we now don’t have the capacity to produce them all until we add more lines.
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Interesting data points.
Are your lines automated? How many items per employee (or some other metric relating number of jobs to turnover), and will a domestically made product sell for the same price and margin as one from China?
 
ScottAndrews said:
Interesting data points.
Are your lines automated? How many items per employee (or some other metric relating number of jobs to turnover), and will a domestically made product sell for the same price and margin as one from China?
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We make millions of gummies a month and have 200+ employees and will need to add more along with equipment. Regarding margins, it depends on the product being made and it's intended sales channel. We make a higher quality product here (I for one would not eat a Chinese made gummy) so we've always attracted that customer, now we're also getting the ones who only wanted price.

In our world Krugman is like Jim Cramer - they make headlines but are ignored.
 
Stevehose said:
We make a higher quality product here (I for one would not eat a Chinese made gummy) so we've always attracted that customer, now we're also getting the ones who only wanted price.

In our world Krugman is like Jim Cramer - they make headlines but are ignored.
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that's what i would have guessed. right there with you on eating Chinese gummy or most processed foods from China.

@ScottAndrews - love the Krugman article. have always had a lot of respect for him ... but @Stevehose, you are right ... he is generally ignored and written off as a leftist point of view. but more often than not, he is correct.
 
Steve, do you know what percentage of gummies are made in China. I suspect small children(that includes adolescents up to the age of 25 in my book) consume a large percentage of imported gummies. If you won't eat them neither should children. Or anyone else for that matter.
 
CSteve said:
Steve, do you know what percentage of gummies are made in China. I suspect small children(that includes adolescents up to the age of 25 in my book) consume a large percentage of imported gummies. If you won't eat them neither should children. Or anyone else for that matter.
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No but I suspect many of the ones on Amazon that make outrageous claims or have more vitamins in them that are physically possible is a start.
 
Stevehose said:
Here’s our case study. We have a few Chinese packaging suppliers - they are eating the tariff and not passing it to us. We produce white label gummies for vitamin/supplement brands (and THC :cool:) and those that were having their finished product made in China have come to us to produce domestically and we now don’t have the capacity to produce them all until we add more lines.
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Interesting, they had a choice, eat the tariffs or the gummies...
 
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