the economist i spoke to has clarified your statement about the April CPI report with the addition of ... this has not happened 'YET, because what has already landed and in stores has not been applicable to any new tariff.'
Tariffs
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ScottAndrews
Well-Known Member
The conventional wisdom is that the next few weeks will see these increases as we see the effects from the other end of the 4-6 week supply chain. We shall see...
I know from an E9 perspective prices are up 25%..
Some other good news I forgot to mention, two weeks ago, as part of its quarterly refunding announcement, the Treasury surprised the market when it unveiled a funding need for the current quarter that was $53B LOWER than it had initially forecast in February which indicates that DOGE is indeed working and the US funding needs are actually declining. That rarely happens.
But like you mention, all this data lags but not the catastrophic (major recession imminent) predictions most economists were forecasting so far has not come to fruition, all the doom and gloom has changed quickly to the upside, maybe too quick but we will see. Market is coming back too which I think everyone will agree is a good thing. The "shorts" and hedge funds seemed to get caught with their pants down thanks to retail traders.
Dead cat bounce? Hmmmmm..... I am an optimist on this and think things will start improving, one negotiation at a time. Saudi meeting seemed to go well. I hope nobody sold on the downside. Luckily I am not a "put" trader and hung on, so far, so good, but still not in the green from a couple months ago. Getting close to breakeven.
But like you mention, all this data lags but not the catastrophic (major recession imminent) predictions most economists were forecasting so far has not come to fruition, all the doom and gloom has changed quickly to the upside, maybe too quick but we will see. Market is coming back too which I think everyone will agree is a good thing. The "shorts" and hedge funds seemed to get caught with their pants down thanks to retail traders.
Dead cat bounce? Hmmmmm..... I am an optimist on this and think things will start improving, one negotiation at a time. Saudi meeting seemed to go well. I hope nobody sold on the downside. Luckily I am not a "put" trader and hung on, so far, so good, but still not in the green from a couple months ago. Getting close to breakeven.
careful my friend ... an opinion on whether 'DOGE is working' is likely going to entice somebody into crossing another line. i want to leave this thread open, but we can't bounce off the rev limiter too many times.
I video captured the end where they all kind of dance to YMCA and I shared with my children. They thought it was an AI generated video
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was he doing the 'jerking off 2 guys' move ... think about it, once you have seen it, you can never unforget it. sorry for being a bit crass in the morning, but i couldn't think of a better way of saying it.I video captured the end where they all kind of dance to YMCA and I shared with my children. They thought it was an AI generated video
So what happened to that whole line crossing avoidance thing?
its the description from the comedian Bill Maher ... and that's what he called Trump's dance move when he was on the campaign trail ... when you watch it, and remember that line ... its kinda a true description. really has no political meaning, condemnation or anything but what his dance is described by Maher.
You guys do crack me up sometimes...in the end, let's all be friends like I hope we are and mean well, I just like a lively discussion here and there...it's kind of hard sometimes for me to refrain, and obviously LIKE to talk about politics, economics, financial stuff etc. but truly not going out of my way to offend anyone. We all have our opinions, don't think I don't realize most of you are on the opposite end of the spectrum as me. But we are all adults, and me personally, I don't get offended by much. Seems like a lot of you are a little more touchy on stuff, that's fine, sign of the times unfortunately. Yes, the initial tariff subject was very relevant, however, as the days go by it seems like the tariffs will not as bad as initially predicted, and wilI most likely get better and better as the days pass so maybe not that relevant anymore.
I equate it to a junkie or an alcoholic that says, "I'm going to quit this stuff." Then they do for a couple days then relapse. I do try and stay away from this stuff on this site, but sometimes hard for me not to respond (again in a respectful way).
For instance, it is funny to me that trying to curtail all the waste we have in our big bloated government (and around the world) is a "bad thing." But, many of you obviously disagree. OK, that's fine, but me personally, as a taxpayer since I was 15 years old, hate for paying for this kind of crazy stuff. I wish they had another box to check on the 1040 FORM you could check as to where your hard earned money is going to be spent. Until then, I feel like it is just being wasted on stupid programs and lining politicians pockets (both sides). Anyhow...all good in the neighborhood, hope everyone is having a great day and enjoying their coupes and E'3s now that the weather is nice. Cheers! -S
I equate it to a junkie or an alcoholic that says, "I'm going to quit this stuff." Then they do for a couple days then relapse. I do try and stay away from this stuff on this site, but sometimes hard for me not to respond (again in a respectful way).
For instance, it is funny to me that trying to curtail all the waste we have in our big bloated government (and around the world) is a "bad thing." But, many of you obviously disagree. OK, that's fine, but me personally, as a taxpayer since I was 15 years old, hate for paying for this kind of crazy stuff. I wish they had another box to check on the 1040 FORM you could check as to where your hard earned money is going to be spent. Until then, I feel like it is just being wasted on stupid programs and lining politicians pockets (both sides). Anyhow...all good in the neighborhood, hope everyone is having a great day and enjoying their coupes and E'3s now that the weather is nice. Cheers! -S
Nachtycoupe, I agree there is waste and bloat everywhere. And there is room for careful culling and trimming everywhere. So why is the bloated Defense Department budget untouched? No, why is it growing at the expense of everywhere else? Exhibit A. The US Navy has 11 aircraft carriers and 9 "helo" carriers. The Truman, where two of their $60 million dollar fighter jets now rest at the bottom of the sea, carries 25 of these babies. The Nimitz 79. We float nearly as many carriers as all other countries combined! Surely there is a wee bit of waste there.
Take a look at this article from "The Guardian" the foundation-run, non-profit newspaper that has replaced the New York Times in my online newspaper bin.
www.theguardian.com
Take a look at this article from "The Guardian" the foundation-run, non-profit newspaper that has replaced the New York Times in my online newspaper bin.
Pentagon waste is costing taxpayers billions. But Doge’s cuts are way off base | Katerina Canyon
Musk’s team is targeting diversity initiatives and research, which amount to pennies compared with the real spending concerns
right there with both of you on bloat, waste ... and make no mistake, both sides are guilty of it. my guess as that both sides actually agree on more things than they will admit and could find a ton of common ground if they really wanted to. for me, i don't like extremes of either side ... i'm your basic independent / moderate. anyway, back to normal coupe discussions ... until something changes more substantially on tariffs ... it looks like we have 85 more days of pause.
@Nachtycoupe, my comment on your post with DOGE was more about others not taking the bait and running with it.
@Nachtycoupe, my comment on your post with DOGE was more about others not taking the bait and running with it.
Right.
As to the normal discussion, it seems quite clear to me that we are going to pay more for our hobby due to a major and unexpected change in US trade policy. The Administration has decided that there should be a minimum charge, say 10%, for selling into the US and a higher charge from some of our trading partners. And while there may be US products that meet some of our maintenance needs - Interstate batteries, Gates belts and hoses, AC Delco alternators and maybe tires - repair parts are not made here now, and they are not going to be made here in the future. And when we need repairs, our demand is not elastic because of the large investment (both financial and emotional) we have in our cars and the limited number of parts sources. For both repairs and restorations, we are going to pay a higher price.
As to the normal discussion, it seems quite clear to me that we are going to pay more for our hobby due to a major and unexpected change in US trade policy. The Administration has decided that there should be a minimum charge, say 10%, for selling into the US and a higher charge from some of our trading partners. And while there may be US products that meet some of our maintenance needs - Interstate batteries, Gates belts and hoses, AC Delco alternators and maybe tires - repair parts are not made here now, and they are not going to be made here in the future. And when we need repairs, our demand is not elastic because of the large investment (both financial and emotional) we have in our cars and the limited number of parts sources. For both repairs and restorations, we are going to pay a higher price.
Don’t quote me on this because I am flying off the cuff without research but I don’t think Doge has been able to audit them YET. If they do get around to it I think it will be a big eye opener for many people. Like the rest of the audits. Tons of waste and black hole money leaking through there like a siv. I don’t think anyone that pays attention can argue that. Been going on for years and years through multiple administrations.Nachtycoupe, I agree there is waste and bloat everywhere. And there is room for careful culling and trimming everywhere. So why is the bloated Defense Department budget untouched? No, why is it growing at the expense of everywhere else? Exhibit A. The US Navy has 11 aircraft carriers and 9 "helo" carriers. The Truman, where two of their $60 million dollar fighter jets now rest at the bottom of the sea, carries 25 of these babies. The Nimitz 79. We float nearly as many carriers as all other countries combined! Surely there is a wee bit of waste there.
Take a look at this article from "The Guardian" the foundation-run, non-profit newspaper that has replaced the New York Times in my online newspaper bin.
Pentagon waste is costing taxpayers billions. But Doge’s cuts are way off base | Katerina Canyon
Musk’s team is targeting diversity initiatives and research, which amount to pennies compared with the real spending concerns
Shopteacher
Member
47$ on a 165.00 purchase from Walloth. Bill came from UPS with a threat to turn it over to a collection agency if it hadn’t already been done. This was my first notice, which I paid promptly.
Everyone in the Congress is for cutting bloat and waste. Just don't touch my district/state. Hilarious.
I was amazed at the Saudi's accepting YMCA given the acronym meaning and the hedonistic angles. They may have come a long way! The only question if they played that music at the venue or just in the US transmission...
ScottAndrews
Well-Known Member
Without getting tangled up in whatever invisible guardrails we are dealing with on this thread, the issue with DOGE is not with the goal. I suspect everyone is all for eliminating waste and fraud.. The issue is with the approach.
You don't become more efficient by simply taking a chainsaw to things. You need to understand what the objective of an operation is, and then a) whether that is a worthwhile objective, and b) whether it is being accomplished efficiently.. Pretty simple in theory, but pretty hard to do in practice. "Move fast and break stuff" might work in software development. It is a recipe for chaos in government.
E9 isn't running well? Then remove that pesky distributor, probably made in China anyway, and ditch the tires.. they are made by a competitor of one of my friends, so they MUST be unnecessary...And gas.. that's expensive, use water instead!
You don't become more efficient by simply taking a chainsaw to things. You need to understand what the objective of an operation is, and then a) whether that is a worthwhile objective, and b) whether it is being accomplished efficiently.. Pretty simple in theory, but pretty hard to do in practice. "Move fast and break stuff" might work in software development. It is a recipe for chaos in government.
E9 isn't running well? Then remove that pesky distributor, probably made in China anyway, and ditch the tires.. they are made by a competitor of one of my friends, so they MUST be unnecessary...And gas.. that's expensive, use water instead!
Factoids:
Tesla's revenue is 95B$/year.
IRS 5T$/year.
Working for the IRS and for Tesla has the same score on Glassdor.
Ergo: I am bored.
Tesla's revenue is 95B$/year.
IRS 5T$/year.
Working for the IRS and for Tesla has the same score on Glassdor.
Ergo: I am bored.
I prefer Gold Plated Chainsaw's....just a joke Scott, I see your point and agree but as we all know, nobody is perfect and I guess they had to start somewhere with the approach they did. That is debatable whether too much to fast but I think they were trying to stay one step ahead of all the red tape that is flying right now.
Better to ask for forgiveness than permission approach, I tend to use that in real life too.
Better to ask for forgiveness than permission approach, I tend to use that in real life too.
ScottAndrews
Well-Known Member
The problem is that asking forgiveness is pretty hard when you have alienated swaths of scientists who are now moving their research to countries that actually value it. And asking forgiveness from countries that we summarily yanked support from while adversary China slides in to fill the void also doesn't work. Some of this must have Xi and Putin rubbing their hands in glee. While yes, there was inefficiency in things like USAID, those organizations bought global goodwill at a fraction of the price we will spend defending ourselves against Chinese/Russian hegemony. The chainsaw, golden or not, works well when you find a dead tree that needs to be taken down. It doesn't work so well when you cut down the best shade tree in the field and then, realizing your lack of foresight, try to prop it back up. Damage is done. Trust is lost. And it will take decades or more to restore, once the current chainsaws have been put away. Unfortunately, short sighted, non-strategic actions are not easily or quickly forgiven on the world stage.
"Better to ask for forgiveness than permission approach, I tend to use that in real life too." Best not ask your surgeon to use that approach when your life or livelihood depend on it... Just sayin'
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