Think Of The Repercussions If This Happens

I am presently anti-Electrical Vehicle, to me, it's a short sighted false economy.

Better get that world electrical grid in order well before 2035 then.

Didn't they have a record heat wave in Europe and random brown & black outs because the stress on the electrical system?

Remember the Texas deep freeze, snow & the grid being down for weeks?
The 1998 Northeast Ice Storm lasted weeks?
Modern day California with rolling black outs because of A/C units?
 
It is a bold statement to prohibit the sale of new ICE cars by 2035, and a lot will have to happen in the next 13 years to support such a vision. Vehicles and battery technology and infrastructure will continue to improve, but the public investment in both the grid and charging infrastructure will need to be substantially strengthened as @adawil2002 noted.

In the EU ~11.5 million new registrations last year. I am not sure what the scrap rate is, but far less than that number. So...if you think about the average age of vehicles on the road (US is ~12-13 years) the installed base of ICE cars will still be over 100 million and that will take ten or more years to deplete without schemes such as tax incentives or penalties that would accelerate scrap rates. everyone from manufacturing to the end consumer will have their hand out for support of such a massive undertaking.
 
boonies said:
It is a bold statement to prohibit the sale of new ICE cars by 2035, and a lot will have to happen in the next 13 years to support such a vision. Vehicles and battery technology and infrastructure will continue to improve, but the public investment in both the grid and charging infrastructure will need to be substantially strengthened as @adawil2002 noted.
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Don’t want to get into a political discussion but sometimes it takes big government initiatives to spark transformational change. I was born and raised in Washington DC. DC had a terrible, well-earned reputation for violence in the 70’s, 80’s, and 90’s. Mayor Barry (yes, DC‘s crack smoking mayor) wanted to transform the Shaw/U st neighborhood which had been one of the worst areas in DC since I was born; open air drug selling, prostitution, gang violence, etc. Barry put a government building right in the middle of all that trouble. My father told me to buy property in that neighborhood because everything was going to change; I didn’t believe him. It took 15 years for things to turn around, but now that neighborhood is thriving (and I could have been a go-zillionaire if I had listened to my old man). You are right, a lot has to happen, but it will; sometimes it takes a big initiative to get the ball rolling.

I am nostalgic for ICE vehicles, but recognize that EVs are better in just about every way: faster, quieter, and more efficient. This is a horse and buggy to automobile type moment in history. What depresses me is that vehicles will become much more like appliances in the future. I doubt that my grandchildren, if they live in a city of decent size, will own or be interested in cars. If they need to get anywhere, they will just use an Uber type service to call up a driverless EV that will likely be shaped like a cube, won‘t have windows, and will covered in electronic advertisements.
 
adawil2002 said:
I am presently anti-Electrical Vehicle, to me, it's a short sighted false economy.

Better get that world electrical grid in order well before 2035 then.
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Actually it takes LESS electricity to power an EV than it takes to find, extract, transport the crude to a refinery, refine, store, deliver to the gas station, and operate the gas station to power an ICE the same distance. Part of that, of course, is that the EV is 85% efficient with it's "fuel" while the ICE is 40% efficient with its. If we could instantly convert from ICE to EV we would have a surplus of electricity. That won't happen, of course, and the path from ICE to EV will be long with plenty of hiccups, learning, and adjustment.

EDIT: As a side benefit, think of the trillions of dollars of subsidies going to oil companies annually ($6 trillion in 2020...$11 million per minute!) that could go back in the pockets of taxpayers or be used for something more meaningful (am I dreaming? ;))

The bigger challenge is the conversion to renewable energy sources to power the grid. Europe is far ahead of the US and the Ukraine war will result in an even faster conversion. The US is moving in that direction but the status quo is a much more powerful force here than in Europe (and China). We are fortunate here in Washington State where 75% of the electricity is from renewables (hydro, wind, solar). California has had several days recently where 100% of the electricity consumed was from renewables. Rooftop solar installations are booming here and will continue to increase quickly as long as grid sources of renewables are in relatively short supply....for the main reason that renewable energy is so much cheaper...NO fuel is needed to produce it.
 
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From the UK perspective (and as an EV owner), EVs are great for 95% of the journeys you will make but the remaining 5% are nightmarish unless you use an ICE or hybrid powered vehicle. Realistically you cannot make a journey by EV in the UK if you expect to rely on charging en-route. More charging points may appear, but then again there will be more vehicles ..... The majority of homes here do not have their own drives, so charging for those home owners will always be a lottery.... expect plenty of charging point rage! ..... and don't get me started on the UK strategic planning abilities ......
 
adawil2002 said:
To add to the issue...Most of today's vehicles are fully recyclable. Batteries recycling poses a big problem for the future when they are no longer rechargeable.
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Lithium ion batteries are fully recyclable and are being recycled...

blog.ucsusa.org

Are EV Batteries Recyclable?

Many people are working to ensure EV batteries are being reused, repurposed, and recycled
blog.ucsusa.org

Check out the scale of Redwood Materials recycling operations...

www.redwoodmaterials.com

Redwood Materials | Circular Supply Chain for Lithium-ion Batteries

Redwood creates a closed-loop, domestic supply chain by recycling and refining lithium-ion batteries and remanufacturing anode and cathode components.
www.redwoodmaterials.com www.redwoodmaterials.com

100% of Tesla batteries are recycled.

www.tesla.com

Battery Recycling | Tesla Support

Tesla vehicles are designed to last. Materials in a Tesla lithium-ion battery are recoverable and recyclable. Learn what happens to Tesla battery packs once they reach their end of life.
www.tesla.com www.tesla.com

It only makes economic sense to recycle the expensive components of Lithium ion batteries. The expense to get those minerals out of a used up battery are much less than mining the raw material.
 
day66 said:
The majority of homes here do not have their own drives, so charging for those home owners will always be a lottery.... expect plenty of charging point rage! ..... and don't get me started on the UK strategic planning abilities ......
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I think this is a problem that isn't being addressed quickly enough. It is especially true for apartment complexes. If you can't charge your EV at your home, it makes less sense to own one. At some point, apartment owners will start installing charging stations at the complex in order to attract renters and compete with other apartment complexes that are installing them. I would expect to see new complexes to begin offering charging stations as part of the initial construction. It's going to lag demand, however, and discourage EV ownership by apartment renters.

Homes without a driveway to get the EV off the street for charging is another negative. I have seen several EVs here in my town being charged at the curb, but I don't think I would do that. It would probably take a curbside "vault" with power and the charging cord that could be locked up when not in use to interest me.
 
WALTER said:
.. the Shaw/U st neighborhood which had been one of the worst areas in DC since I was born; open air drug selling, prostitution, gang violence, etc. Barry put a government building right in the middle of all that trouble. My father told me to buy property in that neighborhood because everything was going to change; I didn’t believe him. It took 15 years for things to turn around, but now that neighborhood is thriving..
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Fascinating.
The Mission in SF turned around way faster than 15 years, and Dumbo in Brooklyn as well. Countless examples of that maybe because demographics drove the process. Government office space can make a neighborhood safer, unlikely to make it more lively...
 
Think about electric "filling stations" of the future. Make an estimate of how many stalls will be needed at each station to charge US Interstate (or EU motorway, autostrada, et al) traffic if it takes at least an hour to get satisfactory charge for the vehicle. Today's 'gas/diesel' stations may have 10-15 pumps, but it only takes about 3-6 minutes to fill an automobile tank. Even then, there are occasional wait times to pull up to a pump. Gonna' be interesting.

Gary
 
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You raise some good points about true impact on the grid, as well as battery recycling. I think it is safe to assume that both negative speaking points are being driven by the petroleum industry. Meanwhile, manufacturers continue to plug the recycling logo on petroleum based plastics that can’t/won’t get recycled.

www.smithsonianmag.com

At Least 85 Percent of U.S. Plastic Waste Went to Landfills in 2021

Only five percent of the material was in the correct condition to be recycled
www.smithsonianmag.com www.smithsonianmag.com

I do think it is foolish to assume that we will free up oil subsidies. The EV and solar industry is already subsidized and any the monies would most certainly get directed there. Oil company lobbying is in the top 5 for annual spend, but utilities are still in the top 10.

The US has the capability of creating a hefty amount of engineering, production line, and service jobs with the implementation of renewable energy plants, wind farms, and EV battery recycling. I fully expect that the biggest players in the industry will be oil companies if they aren’t already.

DF7B4160-80FB-4AB3-ADC9-2FC96DDE98B7.jpeg
 
Gary Knox said:
Think about electric "filling stations" of the future. Make an estimate of how many stalls will be needed at each station to charge US Interstate (or EU motorway, auiostrada, et al) traffic if it takes at least an hour to get satisfactory charge for the vehicle. Today's 'gas/diesel' stations may have 10-15 pumps, but it only takes about 3-6 minutes to fill an automobile tank. Even then, there are occasional wait times to pull up to a pump. Gonna' be interesting.

Gary
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"It's going to be interesting"....if nothing changes. Already, 1 hour charging is a thing of the past. Current Tesla superchargers charge at a rate of 800 miles/hour. My 260 mile battery charges from 0 to full in 20 minutes at one of the newer superchargers (and it is never at 0 when I recharge). 4th gen superchargers will start to be deployed next year which will be even faster. 400 mile range batteries are now common with some at 500. Range will continue to increase and charging time will continue to decrease. My guess is that both will be BETTER than ICE vehicles quicker than we think.

It's also important to note that 95% of recharging takes place at home. How often would you be refilling an ICE car someplace other than home if you had a gas pump in the garage?
 
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California has made a big splash by enacting a 2035 conversion time to all electric with an unpublicized loophole of plug in hybrids also qualifying. This will ease the transition here. Personally, we do too much off Interstate traveling to go to an EV yet, but we’re on our second plug in hybrid. We easily have a 50% reduction in fuel usage with primarily home charging supported by our solar panels.
Pilot has announced the addition of charging stations at all of their stations. In town stations doing this is one solution for the future for apartment dwellers etc. who won’t have chargers in thirteen years. DC fast chargers and fast charging EVs we will approach the “refueling” time of ICE cars within a few years.
 
Markos said:
...

The US has the capability of creating a hefty amount of engineering, production line, and service jobs with the implementation of renewable energy plants, wind farms, and EV battery recycling. I fully expect that the biggest players in the industry will be oil companies if they aren’t alreadyView attachment 150745
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Yep, companies like Chevron already redefined themselves as energy companies, which seems an appropriate step.
 
Arde said:
Yep, companies like Chevron already redefined themselves as energy companies, which seems an appropriate step.
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Yes overall I think it is a good thing. Eventually people will be complaining about “big energy” eating up all of the pristine desert land with solar fields.
 
Arde said:
Yep, companies like Chevron already redefined themselves as energy companies, which seems an appropriate step.
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Every petroleum company in Houston, Texas rebranded as "energy" companies years ago now. Big oil is gone, all hail the new "energy" corridor that is I-10 West. This note is not meant to contain political leanings or comment on the merits of ICE vs EV. I just find large-scale rebranding initiatives interesting.

When a whole industry that was once almost the very core of a state's identity decides to change the name of their own industry, well it doesn't take a particularly gifted tea reader to see the winds of change in the bottom of the cup. Hang on, I'm sure I can mix and torture that metaphor a little bit more...nope, maybe I can't.
 
Hi guys
I have a real worry in my mind .
If everyone moves away from internal combustion engines.
Will they eventually stop “making “ petrol.
Or will they scale production back so much that the cost per litre will be equivalent to a rare vintage bottle of whiskey or something .
And if that happens , how will we take out our classic cars ??
I know some people might say , get them converted to EV running gear, but honestly, to me that is not what classic cars are about, I don’t have any interest in rolling around in a no engined , rattling, wind noisy , re shelled Prius .
( I might be getting too carried away with that last point :) So no offence to anyone who already has a nice converted classic ! )
 
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