Mike Goble
Well-Known Member
I think you worry too much.
Think Of The Repercussions If This Happens
- Thread starter bavaria
- Start date
Demographics played a large part in DC’s transformation, but the catalyst was the stability and security of government investment; nobody was moving into those neighborhoods before the government made concrete commitments.
No doubt. My point is that the trigger is investment, but not necessarily by government. In SF China Basin it was the massive UCSF buildup plus the Chase Center stadium perhaps. In Brooklyn it was all private sector I think, in the SF Mission it was the gentrification and the young commuters from the Silicon Valley. Manhattan, in my opinion, always had a dynamic where neighborhoods have a slow decay process (based on aging, neglect, and quality of life retreat) followed by a very rapid recovery triggered by values falling below a threshold that attracts private sector investment en masse. Fascinating to watch.
Whenever a cycle of renewal happens cars become less and less welcome, more expensive to park and to charge EVs.
Correct. And that will happen regardless of the companies legacy. I meant the transformation was positive in the sense that it can be real, not just rebranding...Ultimately these oil companies' value is in logistics, operations, investment, risk analysis, etc., for energy and transportation. People think they benefit from higher oil prices because they own the oil on the ground, they do not. The oil belongs to the sovereign country where the oil resides, and the largest reserves are Saudi, Iranian, Russian, Venezuelan. Not Chevron and Exxon. Alternate energy has the positive effect of the defanging, shall I say, problematic actors. The Saudis are clearly investing for a diversified energy future, the others have played a game where their malfeasance increases the risk premium of a barrel of oil, so global instability is a free lunch for them...
I fail to understand why energy independence via more sustainable methods aren’t more widely accepted in the US. It’s interesting that all the oil companies have moved to energy companies, but will need to spend a lot of time and money to reverse the messaging that has been engrained in the minds of individuals for the last 100 years.
Hell if I was a farmer, I would be leasing the small plots that makeup the base of a wind turbine.
I see a day where we are purchasing one gallon/liter cans of Petrol, similar to denatured alcohol and other solvents.
However, I think it is safe to say that diesel isn’t going anywhere. As much as I love my 20v tools, I don’t think electric heavy equipment will be able to meet construction demands. Also, diesel will always need to be on hand to power electric generators.
After operating a lot of heavy equipment over the last 6 months, I am amazed at how little fuel they consume. They are loud, smelly, drip oil etc. When I go to return them after a day or two of use I fill up maybe 2 gallons max. Granted they are smaller units, but the comparison to gasoline isn’t even close!
I made a similar comment a while back and was reminded the US military has a lot of machinery that is ICE, and will continue to be ICE for a long time. For 'national security' I expect there will be a need for carbon based fuels far into the future. But we certainly don't want to be forced to pay outrageous amounts for our fuel which migh happen if the volume falls too much.Hi guys
I have a real worry in my mind .
If everyone moves away from internal combustion engines.
Will they eventually stop “making “ petrol.
Or will they scale production back so much that the cost per litre will be equivalent to a rare vintage bottle of whiskey or something .
And if that happens , how will we take out our classic cars ??
I know some people might say , get them converted to EV running gear, but honestly, to me that is not what classic cars are about, I don’t have any interest in rolling around in a no engined , rattling, wind noisy , re shelled Prius .
( I might be getting too carried away with that last pointSo no offence to anyone who already has a nice converted classic ! )
A bit unrelated, but I never really knew how big wind turbines were until traveling through eastern washington. A new turbine is delivered on 5 or so trucks. Each truck has one blade.
Example:
Example:
Even though gasoline use will decline, oil extraction isn’t going away. Think of the products made from oil that aren’t gasoline: jet fuel, diesel, asphalt, fuel oil for ships, plastic, clothes, tires, etc… It would be interesting to learn from a chemical engineer how they will reallocate much of the gasoline component from oil refineries.
Use of oil - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
The types and amounts of petroleum products consumed annually in the United States, and a list of the top 5 gasoline consuming states.
I would think not so much "reallocate", but actually "goes away". I don't think they'll make more jet fuel when the amount of gasoline needed is less (example)
Gasoline would be the first to have production reduced, then Diesel as diesel cars and truck are replaced by electric, then natural gas as more and more renewable sources of energy replace gas fired generators. All of that is a LONG ways away and the oil companies will fight it tooth and nail.
I love ICE cars, but the 2013 Tesla Model S 60 that I just lost in the storm was a terrific daily driver. Fast as stink, roomy (front and rear trunk, plus rear facing third row that fit our kids up to about 5 feet tall), sturdy in case you are hit by a lifted F250 (Florida Man Car). My wife bought it new, and then passed it to me with 125k miles. I drove it another 5k before Ian took it.
I am hoping other battery technologies will emerge, since Li stores are finite, and the price is up 700 percent in last few years. And when they catch fire, very hard to put out.
I think there is room in the market for a small battery to give around town range of say 40 miles plus a hybrid. Most of these plug in hybrids have range that is too short--330e is IIRC 21 miles, and my commute is about 30 round trip. The RAV4 plug in goes 40 on a charge as does the Escape Hybrid, but those are too boring for me, and impossible to get.
I rented a FIat Tipo Diesel wagon in Europe this summer--manual trans and got 48 mpg, had good torque, while hauling four of us around with a lot of gear. Drove it over the Stelvio Pass. It's a great ICE car. Too bad diesel has such a bad rap.
I am hoping other battery technologies will emerge, since Li stores are finite, and the price is up 700 percent in last few years. And when they catch fire, very hard to put out.
I think there is room in the market for a small battery to give around town range of say 40 miles plus a hybrid. Most of these plug in hybrids have range that is too short--330e is IIRC 21 miles, and my commute is about 30 round trip. The RAV4 plug in goes 40 on a charge as does the Escape Hybrid, but those are too boring for me, and impossible to get.
I rented a FIat Tipo Diesel wagon in Europe this summer--manual trans and got 48 mpg, had good torque, while hauling four of us around with a lot of gear. Drove it over the Stelvio Pass. It's a great ICE car. Too bad diesel has such a bad rap.
Yep, I used to visit Paris for work and my co-workers told me France needs no Hybrid cars as their Diesels could drive 1.000 km per tank....
Can you be more graphic about the demise of your Tesla S 60?
a) did it float away to Havanna?
b) was it just flooded but still there when you came back? Was it towed by the insurer for scrap?
c) if it was insured, the insurance payment would finally settle the question of Tesla depreciation, though this question may be going too far
. If so, ignore me.
Volvo XC60 hybrid? 39mile all electric range.
ICE technology was still seeing major technology advancements 100 years after its introduction. It is rational to therefore conclude we will see big technology. advancements in BEV battery technology for many years. Those who poo-poo BEV’s today are the decendants of those that said passenger air travel would never be practical in 1920, that ICE cars would never catch on in 1890, and the wheel was impractical due to the lack of high performance axle grease.
The Road To An EV Battery Breakthrough
Startups to Tesla are pushing for small improvements to big breakthroughs.
www.investors.com
"The energy density of gasoline will never equal that of oats. And I challenge you sir, to carry gasoline in the pockets of your trousers. You can't, but as you can see mine are full of oats. How will you ever get around the distribution problem? Make waterproof pockets? Can't be done."
The automotive battery market alone is headed toward 300 billion dollars by 2028. There is an astronomical amount of money chasing improvements in battery technology. I suspect few people (not me), have sufficiently aggressive vision for where we are actually going to be in 10 years.
If I were building a new house today, I would go nuts on solar, and set aside 6 cubic meters/yards of the site for an underground whole house battery system, knowing that much cheaper high capacity, (but physically large), recyclable electrical storage is not all that far from practical reality. Where I live, houses as so expensive, another $30k for a battery system that goes a couple days off grid is almost negligible. I could even cities requiring new homes/subdivisions to hBe such renewable infrastructure, much in the same they are required to have $25jk leach fields, sidewalks etc.
news.mit.edu
If I were building a new house today, I would go nuts on solar, and set aside 6 cubic meters/yards of the site for an underground whole house battery system, knowing that much cheaper high capacity, (but physically large), recyclable electrical storage is not all that far from practical reality. Where I live, houses as so expensive, another $30k for a battery system that goes a couple days off grid is almost negligible. I could even cities requiring new homes/subdivisions to hBe such renewable infrastructure, much in the same they are required to have $25jk leach fields, sidewalks etc.
A new concept for low-cost batteries
MIT engineers designed a battery made from inexpensive, abundant materials, that could provide low-cost backup storage for renewable energy sources. Less expensive than lithium-ion battery technology, the new architecture uses aluminum and sulfur as its two electrode materials with a molten salt...
news.mit.edu
Ya. Can’t get too excited about a Volvo SUV. Or any SUV.Volvo XC60 hybrid? 39mile all electric range.
ICE technology was still seeing major technology advancements 100 years after its introduction. It is rational to therefore conclude we will see big technology. advancements in BEV battery technology for many years. Those who poo-poo BEV’s today are the decendants of those that said passenger air travel would never be practical in 1920, that ICE cars would never catch on in 1890, and the wheel was impractical due to the lack of high performance axle grease.
The Road To An EV Battery Breakthrough
Startups to Tesla are pushing for small improvements to big breakthroughs.
And I agree. Someone is going to come up with battery tech better than Li Ion. Which itself is pretty old technology.
Teslas don’t float! I had parked it outside due to the fire risk, and it did not move an inch. The battery pack is HEAVY. Every other ICE car and truck floats. There is a Toyota Tundra a few blocks away that floated at least ¼ a mile.Yep, I used to visit Paris for work and my co-workers told me France needs no Hybrid cars as their Diesels could drive 1.000 km per tank....
Can you be more graphic about the demise of your Tesla S 60?
a) did it float away to Havanna?
b) was it just flooded but still there when you came back? Was it towed by the insurer for scrap?
c) if it was insured, the insurance payment would finally settle the question of Tesla depreciation, though this question may be going too far
The fire department came and dragged it closer to the road to minimize fire risk to the structure. Then the insurance co came and got it. They paid it out without even looking at it. I just sent them a pic from my driveway. There was mud inside because when it got wet the drivers window rolled down.
The payment was about 45 percent of what it cost new in 2013. It had 130k miles. Pretty impressive.
Wow, that residual value is way better than ICE cars, even thought the battery was worn by now...
You can still buy a model S--for 109k base price. But standard big battery, AWD, etc. Ours was RWD, smaller battery, was about 65k less 7500 tax credit., which is expired.
And our range was definitely diminished by now. They paid us FULL retail. The used car market is still nuts.
SC
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I do not have, nor have I driven a full electric car, so can't really comment on them. I have driven several hybrids (rentals on vacations). I really like them (as grocery getters etc.). Back when I was employed in the early 90's, my group was developing high temp ceramic composite materials for gas turbines (jet engines). One of the potential applications being evaluated was a very small turbine for hybrid cars in a couple of foreign countries. A turbine can be pretty efficient of run continuously. I retired and General Electric bought the business. One of the guys in the group is now head of their manufacturing facility for those turbine blades.
There is a nice tour of the wind turbine facility at Palm Springs CA. I took the tour about 3 years ago. You get to see all the components 'up close and personal', as Mark noted, they are huge. Also of interest was that on a late February day, only about half the turbines were spinning. When I asked why that was, the tour director said there wasn't enough demand for the electricity to operate all their turbines. Seeing the wind turbine farm about a dozen times over the 2 week visit to the area, I never saw more than about 2/3 of the turbines 'turning'.
There is a nice tour of the wind turbine facility at Palm Springs CA. I took the tour about 3 years ago. You get to see all the components 'up close and personal', as Mark noted, they are huge. Also of interest was that on a late February day, only about half the turbines were spinning. When I asked why that was, the tour director said there wasn't enough demand for the electricity to operate all their turbines. Seeing the wind turbine farm about a dozen times over the 2 week visit to the area, I never saw more than about 2/3 of the turbines 'turning'.
Isn’t it the case where if there was cost effective mass storage capability then utilization of those turbines (and solar) could go up closer to 100% (still dependent on wind and sunlight). This would enable utilities to time-shift the renewable energy to whwre it would be of most benefit.
I hope technology addresses this over the next 5-10 years.