the tesla dumb

[Arde]

My Tesla battery came with an 8 year, 150k mile battery warranty, and it failed at 9 years and two months and 130k miles.

...

Bummer, I assume if it fails in warranty they prorate your refund.

Your story shows they are using exactly the iPhone forced refresh model. Scrapping an S series Tesla due to battery wearing out is a sin. There has to be a regulation or aftermarket solution. Or like DQ says, bring back Torquemada to solve this, not to censor.

 

[Markos]

This place used to repair Tesla batteries, not so any more, because Tesla changed the software. You need software to locate the bad cell in order to replace it. The software is proprietary, and so all packs go back to the factory to be repaired. Very very annoying. We need national "right to repair" legislation to fix this. I've had a couple of modern Ferraris, and the aftermarket supplies electronic diagnostic tools, even for those cars. It's just typical of Musk.

Electric Vehicle Service

Expert third-party service for maintenance, repair, and customization, all at competitive prices.

electrifiedgarage.com

Sounds like a John Deere strategy:

 

[day66]

Curious to see if the economics would stack up for a replacement battery pack? It does seem crazy that a 9 year old car is effectively scrap without a replacement pack, perhaps there would be some parallel to having to replace a complete factory engine in a high-end car after catastrophic engine failure.

FWIW we have gone electric for the family DD and are pleased we made the change as we make so many short journeys. We have done the odd 200 mile run too, but we don’t rely on being to charge en-route as it’s still a little patchy and unreliable in the UK.

 

[Ohmess]

Bummer, I assume if it fails in warranty they prorate your refund.

Your story shows they are using exactly the iPhone forced refresh model. Scrapping an S series Tesla due to battery wearing out is a sin. There has to be a regulation or aftermarket solution. Or like DQ says, bring back Torquemada to solve this, not to censor.

I think this is precisely what they are trying to do. I think they are going to make it very difficult to stretch the useful life of EVs to twenty years or more.

 

[Arde]

Curious to see if the economics would stack up for a replacement battery pack? It does seem crazy that a 9 year old car is effectively scrap without a replacement pack, perhaps there would be some parallel to having to replace a complete factory engine in a high-end car after catastrophic engine failure.

...

Back of the envelope calculation. Good European cars in the US depreciate to about half of their value every four years. This is what leases residual value showed when I looked at them. That means 1/4 of the value at the 8-9 year mark.

A 104k$ Tesla S comprised of a 16k$ battery plus an 88k$ car would depreciate to 0 for the battery and to 22k$ for the car.

Would you put another 16k$ in a 22k$ dollar car to get another 9 years? If it drives as new I would. Now getting all the downrev software to work will probably kill my plan in any case...

 

[Gazz]

Back of the envelope calculation. Good European cars in the US depreciate to about half of their value every four years. This is what leases residual value showed when I looked at them. That means 1/4 of the value at the 8-9 year mark.

A 104k$ Tesla S comprised of a 16k$ battery plus an 88k$ car would depreciate to 0 for the battery and to 22k$ for the car.

Would you put another 16k$ in a 22k$ dollar car to get another 9 years? If it drives as new I would. Now getting all the downrev software to work will probably kill my plan in any case...

If it as feasible as that I suggest there may be aftermarket downrev software suppliers, kind of like the old program data transference specialists who convert floppy disc data to USB stick. Or maybe it doesn't work that way, I dunno.

Do batteries degrade without use? If you only do say 5000 klms per year then can you expect at least 15 years of use?

 

[Arde]

If it as feasible as that I suggest there may be aftermarket downrev software suppliers, kind of like the old program data transference specialists who convert floppy disc data to USB stick. Or maybe it doesn't work that way, I dunno.

Do batteries degrade without use? If you only do say 5000 klms per year then can you expect at least 15 years of use?

Yes, a downstream ecosystem will make that every feasible. It is more about the manufacturer removing support and warranty, not so much about technical difficulty. What people call jailbreaking in phone parlance.

My numbers are very conservative because:
- the residual value is actually 60% not 50% for German sedans.
- you save the sales tax on the new car and only pay sales tax on the battery
- may I say the car replacement cost is subject to nine years of price inflation (say between 4 to 9% per year) or is this too incendiary .

 

[craterface]

For right now, I am just going to use the “limp home” range of 60 miles that it will allow itself to charge and keep using it as a commuter car…and see what happens next.

 

[Gazz]

For right now, I am just going to use the “limp home” range of 60 miles that it will allow itself to charge and keep using it as a commuter car…and see what happens next.

Interested to follow your experience.

If it's like my power tools that last vestige of chargeability just hangs in there.

 

[x_atlas0]

This place used to repair Tesla batteries, not so any more, because Tesla changed the software. You need software to locate the bad cell in order to replace it. The software is proprietary, and so all packs go back to the factory to be repaired. Very very annoying. We need national "right to repair" legislation to fix this. I've had a couple of modern Ferraris, and the aftermarket supplies electronic diagnostic tools, even for those cars. It's just typical of Musk.

Electric Vehicle Service

Expert third-party service for maintenance, repair, and customization, all at competitive prices.

electrifiedgarage.com

ICE cars have some level of 'right to repair' due to emissions tests and government OBD standardization. Current EV OBD requirements are being knocked around by SAE, but haven't been defined or ratified yet.

Most indy shop owners have been upset about how much diagnostic software costs, and that's with a relatively limited number of possible updates for a vehicle. For example, the 'official' BMW INPA hardware + software was something around 20k USD initial buy-in a few years back as I recall. Internally, the auto makers do not want indys to exist at all, because then they can't get you to pay for service at the dealers, keeping the vehicle loop closed.

Tesla and other OTA-able vehicles update their software multiple times a year, and each update would require a new update to the service tools too. Tesla knows their 'secret sauce' is the software on the car, as the motor and cells are a commodity. Doing a full diagnostic on these vehicles requires a good amount of root software access, so they don't want to let anyone outside the company to have that level of access. Most companies take potential access problems very seriously; some devices have ports useable in the factory, but part of the factory gate process includes blowing a PCB fuse to physically destroy the access port to prevent that level of access in the future. That's part of why so many parts these days are 'locked' to the car when they are initially installed.

I will say it is significantly more dangerous to get into a high voltage battery pack than an ICE, so that's one good reason to keep non-company personnel from digging into it.

I do not expect this situation to skew to the customer's benefit anytime soon.

 

[Gazz]

"I will say it is significantly more dangerous to get into a high voltage battery pack than an ICE"

Does this mean I can't use a screwdriver to test for spark anymore?

 

[JFENG]

quote to replace the battery is $16,662,

My E60 sedan required on average $1500/year in repairs (not maint). I drove it to 100k miles (5 years beyond warranty). In 2022 dollars that is more like $2000/year. 1/2 the cost of your battery pack .

My E70 is getting long in the tooth (150k miles), and needs turbos and DPF ($7k). Repairs from the last 5 years: incl. crank pulley, EGR cooler, NOX sensors, DEF tank/heater/pump, myriad of vac lines, glow plugs/controller, water pump, thermostat, etc. if done at the local dealer, the cumulative repairs are probably $20k or more. Thank goodness I have an honest indy at 40% less than the dealer and I do a lot of DIY.

My SO’s Mercedes needed about $12k of out of pocket repairs by 159k miles (2011 dollars). The yearly B-service ran $700, so that’s another $7k out of pocket.

So while it’s a shocker, I don’t think $16k at 130k miles is outrageous for powertrain repairs on a car with the performance and advantages of a model S.

 

[CSteve]

Gazz, only if your screwdriver has a rubber handle. We won't get into, "test for spark" at this point. A bit of free associating. I am reminded of the nickname of the electric chair in Florida. It was completly unreliable, victims had to endure multiple blasts, a horror show. The nickname: Old Sparky. What passes for gallows humour these days.

 

[x_atlas0]

"I will say it is significantly more dangerous to get into a high voltage battery pack than an ICE"

Does this mean I can't use a screwdriver to test for spark anymore?

That depends on how many fingers you want to have after.

Reminds me of working in the electric utility industry; the joke was you could tell how long someone had been doing hot work by giving them a high five and seeing how many digits were reciprocated.

To go along with JFENG, my old E34 540 had a running rule: ~1k in upkeep a year. Pay it now or pay it later with extra. I think I spent ~12-14k on that car over ~7 years. Trans went, crank rear main seal blew, untold suspension components, motor mounts, etc. Parts just got old and wore out, which led to 'hard' parts failing.

Even my much more modern W212 2014 E550 needed some love; it blew a coolant line one morning, so I spent the cash to replace all the cooling lines and the expansion bottle. Even with an indy, that was still a 6k job, since it was engine-out for the turbos. Brakes were another 2k (front + rear). I'm probably ~9k all in after 4 years of ownership.

In comparison, my 2011 Ford Flex Ecoboost and 2013 Subaru WRX Hatch needed nothing from new to 100k miles aside from tires, fluids, wipers, and brakes. They were great. So perhaps it's more a German car thing?

 

[craterface]

That depends on how many fingers you want to have after.

Reminds me of working in the electric utility industry; the joke was you could tell how long someone had been doing hot work by giving them a high five and seeing how many digits were reciprocated.

To go along with JFENG, my old E34 540 had a running rule: ~1k in upkeep a year. Pay it now or pay it later with extra. I think I spent ~12-14k on that car over ~7 years. Trans went, crank rear main seal blew, untold suspension components, motor mounts, etc. Parts just got old and wore out, which led to 'hard' parts failing.

Even my much more modern W212 2014 E550 needed some love; it blew a coolant line one morning, so I spent the cash to replace all the cooling lines and the expansion bottle. Even with an indy, that was still a 6k job, since it was engine-out for the turbos. Brakes were another 2k (front + rear). I'm probably ~9k all in after 4 years of ownership.

In comparison, my 2011 Ford Flex Ecoboost and 2013 Subaru WRX Hatch needed nothing from new to 100k miles aside from tires, fluids, wipers, and brakes. They were great. So perhaps it's more a German car thing?

@JFENG I agree, with you and @x_atlas0, I think the cost of the repair is not out of line with a 7 series BMW, X5, or S Class with 130k miles. These cars can eat you alive with repairs (ask me how I know). The Tesla S occupies that market niche. It's a German, thing for sure.

 

[day66]

…. and perhaps also a reflection that the peerless quality of German cars has been sacrificed for the sake of the bean counters over the last couple of decades …

 

[CSteve]

We have owned five and leased one Subaru starting with a little four door sedan in 1983, front wheel drive no less. Four of the five purchased models were used when we bought them. Beyond the usual stuff we put no more than an average of $200. a year into any of them, if that. Our 2000 Forrester went 193,000, we replaced something on the automatic transmission for a couple of bucks. Our second Forrester went to 143, without spending a penny extra. They all sit out 365 a year so rust is our biggest issue.

I do see a general decline in quality, but our 2012 Forrester with 95,000 is still tight enough I would drive it across the country and back a couple of times. Sure, it doesn't have all the automatic braking, line crossing, and other safety devices. But I installed a dash mounted backup camera wired to the back up lights and Waze sure does the job of navigating, even out of the Target parking lot!!

 

[Ohmess]

…. and perhaps also a reflection that the peerless quality of German cars has been sacrificed for the sake of the bean counters over the last couple of decades …

When I lived near DC, one of my neighbors was the lead mechanic at DC's largest Mercedes Benz dealer. About 12 years ago, he told me that all the German car companies have moved to embrace Japanese manufacturering techniques (with MB slowest of them) which reduced both their manufacturing costs and the quality of their vehicles.

Design too has changed, with far less emphasis on how the mechanic goes about maintenance and repair.

In both cases, (in Roger's opinion) these changes were done to hit a selling price target for their vehicles.

 

[JFENG]

…. and perhaps also a reflection that the peerless quality of German cars has been sacrificed for the sake of the bean counters over the last couple of decades …

I think it’s as much the drive for continuous performance improvements at even small degrees that manifests itself as tinkering with the tried and true designs. The result is more changes, more complexity, and thus lower reliability.

I just returned from working w BMW (FIZ) on CY25-28 models, and over dinner what I heard clearly is that BMW puts a higher priority on performance relative to German companies who emphasize long term reliability.

In my household, Daimler products are notably more reliable out to 175k miles, which is when we replace them. But they lack the performance driving qualities that keep me in a BMW as a DD and as a tow vehicle.

John

 

[coupedegrace]

German car companies have moved to embrace Japanese manufacturering techniques (with MB slowest of them) which reduced...the quality of their vehicles.

I find this a somewhat dubious reason for their decline in quality and/or high maintenance costs. If the problem was caused by Japanese car manufacturing techniques, then it seems that Japanese cars would suffer from the same high maintenance issues and costs, etc. In my experience this in not the case at all. This includes the ones built here in the States.

I'm sure that they've done much to lower manufacturing costs over the years, as has everyone. Automated manufacturing levels the playing field quite a bit - a Korean robot can probably weld just as well as a German one. This in large part eliminates differences from a craftsmanship/worker skills standpoint. Most manufacturers probably have access to much the same level of precision in casting, machining, etc. The higher the tolerances, the higher the cost, which is probably more of a factor in quality than worker skill now.

I'm sure your friend is absolutely right about not making cars with mechanics in mind, and trying to hit price points. It seems all large scale manufacturers have embraced designs that emphasize replacement over repair whenever possible. This seems to be a necessary "evil" that goes along with ever more automated manufacturing processes.

Once upon a time German cars commanded a premium for a number of reasons: quality and precision, highly skilled workforce, innovations and driving/performance characteristics among others. Now the gap between German cars and others has grown quite small. I struggle to understand that premium in the face of reliability issues and this ever decreasing gap. I'm not saying all cars are equal at all. BMWs still lean towards performance as John said. All cars have different personalities and pluses and minuses. I guess it's fair to say that the German marques still maintain more personality than some of the other brands. It's almost mind boggling though how far Hyundai/Kia has come since the first crappy cars that they sold here in the States back in the 80s. Speaking of crap, that fact should scare it out of the German brands, but it's hard to see that they feel a need to react in any meaningful way.

This is an over-simplification and it's a really complex topic, but I think Mercedes, BMW and Audi are all in trouble because their lead in performance, quality, innovation and distinguishing characteristics is now quite small. They still sell a whole bunch of cars though - fun cars at that.