chicane
Well-Known Member
- Messages
- 1,026
- Reaction score
- 0
Pics, VIN?
3.0 CSL is undervalued... 74 Porsche 911 Carrera RS 3.0 (RHD) for $600 000!
- Thread starter CSL 1973
- Start date
- Status
Pics, VIN?
eastsideM3
Well-Known Member
Its on the registry
OK, let's apply some pseudo science and get all along again.
We have the largest database of Coupes on the planet, so we can settle if these cars appreciate or depreciate on the average.
Let's add to the registry: Year purchased and Ratio of how much the car is worth vs. purchase price.
Here I go, my 72 CS purchased in 2005 is worth 1.5x times over (purchase price+5 immediate speed conversion cost).
With 100 entries we can do averages and realize that we live in Lake Wobegon "where all the women are strong, all the men are good looking, and all the coupes are above average..."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Wobegon#The_Lake_Wobegon_effect
We have the largest database of Coupes on the planet, so we can settle if these cars appreciate or depreciate on the average.
Let's add to the registry: Year purchased and Ratio of how much the car is worth vs. purchase price.
Here I go, my 72 CS purchased in 2005 is worth 1.5x times over (purchase price+5 immediate speed conversion cost).
With 100 entries we can do averages and realize that we live in Lake Wobegon "where all the women are strong, all the men are good looking, and all the coupes are above average..."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Wobegon#The_Lake_Wobegon_effect
Last edited:
jranmann
Banned
Eastside may I see your B2s a few pics please or is it too on the Registry?
Apologies 30csi for the bathrobe pic, a knee jerk rection and I've had my coffee now my hair is combed as Southern California is washing away and with a new storm almost upon us at twice the size I wish to be ready to evacuate...to where I am not quite sure!
lol!
Ran
Apologies 30csi for the bathrobe pic, a knee jerk rection and I've had my coffee now my hair is combed as Southern California is washing away and with a new storm almost upon us at twice the size I wish to be ready to evacuate...to where I am not quite sure!
lol!
Ran
'69 2800cs
Well-Known Member
http://tinyurl.com/ylf8c4c
http://tinyurl.com/yaenqla
http://tinyurl.com/yb4cgef
Would you like more? .....
Example 1. Not an actual sale, but no matter. $186,700 is still higher than 100-150K.
(BTW, your link is to a '74. That would be an RS 3.0, a completely different car and NADA doesn't make that distinction. NADA assigns the same value for a '73 RS and a '74 RS 3.0 which makes me question the quality of the values.)
Example 2. You can't be serious. A reshelled car with a non matching engine.
Example 3. A sale at $174K. That's above your number too.
If you want to post actual sales of "primo" cars, knock yourself out. I still think your estimate is low.
http://tinyurl.com/yaenqla
http://tinyurl.com/yb4cgef
Would you like more? .....
Example 1. Not an actual sale, but no matter. $186,700 is still higher than 100-150K.
(BTW, your link is to a '74. That would be an RS 3.0, a completely different car and NADA doesn't make that distinction. NADA assigns the same value for a '73 RS and a '74 RS 3.0 which makes me question the quality of the values.)
Example 2. You can't be serious. A reshelled car with a non matching engine.
Example 3. A sale at $174K. That's above your number too.
If you want to post actual sales of "primo" cars, knock yourself out. I still think your estimate is low.
chicane
Well-Known Member
- Messages
- 1,026
- Reaction score
- 0
Think what you like and nitpick all you like:
1. My off the cuff estimates were hardly outlandish and well within reason as the average NADA price was about 150K
2. You have considerable skin in the game so I would hardly take your opinion as objective
3. You must be the first guy on the planet who got offended to find out he owned a six figure car.
4. This is NOT a Porsche forum. We talk about coupes and coupe values here not Porsches.
chicane
Well-Known Member
- Messages
- 1,026
- Reaction score
- 0
Nope, not there.
'69 2800cs
Well-Known Member
Think what you like and nitpick all you like:
1. My off the cuff estimates were hardly outlandish and well within reason as the average NADA price was about 150K
2. You have considerable skin in the game so I would hardly take your opinion as objective
3. You must be the first guy on the planet who got offended to find out he owned a six figure car.
4. This is NOT a Porsche forum. We talk about coupes and coupe values here not Porsches.
Chicane-You are hilarious...it's not a conspiracy against you...I just asked a question. I defer to you on auctions, prices and resources, I was surprised if RS's were selling in that range, and wanted real data to back it up. I'm not looking for a pi$$ing match, though it appears you are.
I have no skin in the game. My car is not a real RS, and '71 911T's with 3.2 swaps are not anywhere near 6 figures.
If you are throwing out values, I simply wanted to know where they came from, because they don't jive with what I've seen. That is all.
Lighten up, dude.
1. My off the cuff estimates were hardly outlandish and well within reason as the average NADA price was about 150K
2. You have considerable skin in the game so I would hardly take your opinion as objective
3. You must be the first guy on the planet who got offended to find out he owned a six figure car.
4. This is NOT a Porsche forum. We talk about coupes and coupe values here not Porsches.
Chicane-You are hilarious...it's not a conspiracy against you...I just asked a question. I defer to you on auctions, prices and resources, I was surprised if RS's were selling in that range, and wanted real data to back it up. I'm not looking for a pi$$ing match, though it appears you are.
I have no skin in the game. My car is not a real RS, and '71 911T's with 3.2 swaps are not anywhere near 6 figures.
If you are throwing out values, I simply wanted to know where they came from, because they don't jive with what I've seen. That is all.
Lighten up, dude.
eastsideM3
Well-Known Member
LOL! Theres a guy on this forum that Im sure is laughing his butt off reading this stuff. He will not get involved in this type of stupid arguement as we shouldnt, but a person who knows first hand what Im saying is 100% true, and is probably one of, if not the, most knowledgeable CSL guys on the planet. Im quite sure you know who he is too.
Keep looking Chicane, you'll find it. Then maybe we can have a discussion about originality, paperwork, and condition, and how that affects the value of these rare cars, something that doesnt seem to matter to you either.
jranmann
Banned
Nope...IMHO all CS cars are undervalued (sales data) by 30 percent and soon that anomoly will adjust all by itself...
Recall that ALL of you bought at the a low point for the most part and will be happy in a year or two as the
examples become scarce due to rust and the wreckers...
Seems to me this is Capitalism at it finest!
Cheers!
Ran
CadillacGreen
Well-Known Member
- Messages
- 244
- Reaction score
- 22
While Chicane may present his points in what some people think is an antagonistic manner, he makes some valid points.
If you are buying these cars because you think the price may go up on them tomorrow, next month, next year, or in the next decade, I would advise you to rethink your motivation for purchasing.
I remember when the collector car market crashed in the early 1990's and people couldn't get near what they paid for something in the late 1980's.
I have seen the vintage guitar market crash in the last couple of years and I happen to believe that the collector car market is over the peak and on the way down, just like many other "collectibles" are correcting right now.
The rise in collector car prices was fueled by the same money that caused a bubble in real estate. Excessive speculation using other people's money with a perceived future return that would be greater down the road.
Will CSL owners see excessive price gains over the next decade? Possibly... but there really is no guarantee that they will. When Chicane states that "past performance is no guarantee of future results" he is absolutely correct. We saw it in the stock market, we saw it in the housing market, etc. If someone can explain why we won't see similar corrections in the collectibles market, I would be more than willing to listen.
How are collector cars different than tulips (http://www.crash2.com/modules/smartsection/item.php?itemid=1)? They aren't. Unless it's a one of one example with many interested prospective owners, it's still a commodity. While the commodity may be more limited by production numbers, it's still just a commodity.
Keep in mind that one thing that has contributed to the rise in prices with these vehicles is their age. As a car reaches beyond 25 years in age it generally starts to appreciate in value faster. This is because the target buyers for what, at 25 years, makes a car a "classic" are the buyers who, at 40-50 years old, can now afford the car they wanted in junior high and high school.
We have seen this with every decade since cars were first produced...
If you want to buy a cheap car now so you can sell it in 10 years for a lot more than you paid, I would tell you to keep away from the E9's and consider something like an M6 or a 635 CSi. Those cars will be cheaper to get into now and will probably return what you put into them much more easily down the road. But it's still not the best place to invest your money because it's not an extremely liquid asset and it takes up a lot of space.
Anyhow, if you think CSL's will become unaffordable soon, on a never ending trajectory of appreciation, then I think you should review pricing on cars from the 20's, 30's and 40's first. These three decades have passed peak pricing and now have a lot more sellers than buyers. Are their exceptions? Certainly! A hand built Duesenberg is worth more than a Ford or Chevrolet from the same period, but CSL's were produced in sufficient quantity that one shouldn't consider them "rare" by any means because they aren't.
As far as what people have been casually or seriously offered for their car or what their car is "worth" today according to a price guide or what a knowledgeable friend tells them or a "gut feeling" they may have on their car's "value", experience has shown me that the only time a cash value can be attached to a car is when it is finally sold to someone else.
Much like the housing market, the only time actual value is realized is when money changes hands. Anything else is simply guesswork and speculation. All of the above can aid in determining an asking price, but what you ask and what you get may be VERY different when you finally have the cash in hand.
Buy a CS or a CSL because you like the car, not because you think you should "buy now or be priced out forever" or because you want to consider it part of your "portfolio". Buy the best example you can find at a price that makes you and the seller content with the deal. Just do your research BEFORE you buy, not after!
As far as whether the CSL should be "worth more" and is "undervalued", unless you have enough cash to manipulate the market, the entire discussion is somewhat academic. None of us can force people to suddenly desire these cars enough to inflate their prices, can we? It's a pointless discussion to even have. "Should" they be worth more? Give me one good solid reason WHY they "should" be worth more? Simply because more people find another car more desirable to possess? That's not a valid reason. Remember, at the end of the day, it's just a way of getting from point A to point B, nothing more. Of course, I wish EVERYTHING I bought appreciated in value 2000% the minute I bought it, but that's not how life works, is it?
It's just a possession that will one day be on the scrap heap whether through rust, accident, nuclear war or because gas is $50.00 a gallon.
Cad
If you are buying these cars because you think the price may go up on them tomorrow, next month, next year, or in the next decade, I would advise you to rethink your motivation for purchasing.
I remember when the collector car market crashed in the early 1990's and people couldn't get near what they paid for something in the late 1980's.
I have seen the vintage guitar market crash in the last couple of years and I happen to believe that the collector car market is over the peak and on the way down, just like many other "collectibles" are correcting right now.
The rise in collector car prices was fueled by the same money that caused a bubble in real estate. Excessive speculation using other people's money with a perceived future return that would be greater down the road.
Will CSL owners see excessive price gains over the next decade? Possibly... but there really is no guarantee that they will. When Chicane states that "past performance is no guarantee of future results" he is absolutely correct. We saw it in the stock market, we saw it in the housing market, etc. If someone can explain why we won't see similar corrections in the collectibles market, I would be more than willing to listen.
How are collector cars different than tulips (http://www.crash2.com/modules/smartsection/item.php?itemid=1)? They aren't. Unless it's a one of one example with many interested prospective owners, it's still a commodity. While the commodity may be more limited by production numbers, it's still just a commodity.
Keep in mind that one thing that has contributed to the rise in prices with these vehicles is their age. As a car reaches beyond 25 years in age it generally starts to appreciate in value faster. This is because the target buyers for what, at 25 years, makes a car a "classic" are the buyers who, at 40-50 years old, can now afford the car they wanted in junior high and high school.
We have seen this with every decade since cars were first produced...
If you want to buy a cheap car now so you can sell it in 10 years for a lot more than you paid, I would tell you to keep away from the E9's and consider something like an M6 or a 635 CSi. Those cars will be cheaper to get into now and will probably return what you put into them much more easily down the road. But it's still not the best place to invest your money because it's not an extremely liquid asset and it takes up a lot of space.
Anyhow, if you think CSL's will become unaffordable soon, on a never ending trajectory of appreciation, then I think you should review pricing on cars from the 20's, 30's and 40's first. These three decades have passed peak pricing and now have a lot more sellers than buyers. Are their exceptions? Certainly! A hand built Duesenberg is worth more than a Ford or Chevrolet from the same period, but CSL's were produced in sufficient quantity that one shouldn't consider them "rare" by any means because they aren't.
As far as what people have been casually or seriously offered for their car or what their car is "worth" today according to a price guide or what a knowledgeable friend tells them or a "gut feeling" they may have on their car's "value", experience has shown me that the only time a cash value can be attached to a car is when it is finally sold to someone else.
Much like the housing market, the only time actual value is realized is when money changes hands. Anything else is simply guesswork and speculation. All of the above can aid in determining an asking price, but what you ask and what you get may be VERY different when you finally have the cash in hand.
Buy a CS or a CSL because you like the car, not because you think you should "buy now or be priced out forever" or because you want to consider it part of your "portfolio". Buy the best example you can find at a price that makes you and the seller content with the deal. Just do your research BEFORE you buy, not after!
As far as whether the CSL should be "worth more" and is "undervalued", unless you have enough cash to manipulate the market, the entire discussion is somewhat academic. None of us can force people to suddenly desire these cars enough to inflate their prices, can we? It's a pointless discussion to even have. "Should" they be worth more? Give me one good solid reason WHY they "should" be worth more? Simply because more people find another car more desirable to possess? That's not a valid reason. Remember, at the end of the day, it's just a way of getting from point A to point B, nothing more. Of course, I wish EVERYTHING I bought appreciated in value 2000% the minute I bought it, but that's not how life works, is it?
It's just a possession that will one day be on the scrap heap whether through rust, accident, nuclear war or because gas is $50.00 a gallon.
Cad
eastsideM3
Well-Known Member
Nobody is disputing that, but that doesnt take away from the fact that certain E9's have seen signficant price appreciation in the last decade even through the start and middle of this whole economic mess.
I also believe collector cars wont see the type of appreciation they have in the last decade, but I also believe certain cars will sustain their current values due to their rarity and target audience. Its all supply and demand based, and there is just too few cars to create a significant price reduction in my opinion.
I also believe collector cars wont see the type of appreciation they have in the last decade, but I also believe certain cars will sustain their current values due to their rarity and target audience. Its all supply and demand based, and there is just too few cars to create a significant price reduction in my opinion.
CadillacGreen
Well-Known Member
- Messages
- 244
- Reaction score
- 22
Then this is where I would disagree with you. I think we have only gone through the very first part of this global economic meltdown so far. I think there is a LOT more pain to come (we are talking YEARS more) that is going to make buyers non-existent for MANY items. I guess I just don't see what will set these particular cars apart when all asset values will drop significantly as buyers become VERY few and far between, and even non-existent.
I suppose for me it's all relative. The CSL will likely always be "worth" more than a standard CS. But when a standard CS sells for $5000 in restored condition ($5000 in today's dollars, mind you, not necessarily inflated dollars), what does that make a CSL "worth"?
As fewer and fewer buyers become available, the asset prices will have to fall as sellers become desperate.
What compelling piece of evidence convinces you that the buyers will always be there to keep the demand up at today's prices?
eastsideM3
Well-Known Member
My compelling evidence is the internet and this site for example and the numerous tv shows popping up covering auctions and concourse events.
Im specifically talking about 100 cars tops in the world. How many come up for sale? How many are for sale currently? Personally I believe that limited number of cars will always have demand, considering the type of buyer that is now purchasing them.
adami
Member
I would have to say that any car homologated in small numbers in order to qualify for racing, especially when they become dominant in racing is super smart money, if you can get your hands on one. They are almost always more stable price wise and end up being worth significantly more. Histary has shown us this from every manufacturer that races.
eastsideM3
Well-Known Member
There is also a very large group of people that have a lot of money that help support markets on rare limited cars. The type of money that they will never be affected by an economic dowturn. For example my neighbor just started work on a 4 million dollar speed boat project for the poker runs. Talk about a depreciating undesireable asset, but he could care less. When this type of buyer is in play for a small number of cars, the market doesnt crash no matter how bad the economic situation gets, especially for a 100-150K car that is now getting some attention by them. Your starting to see some E9's floating around in those crowds at events and auctions, such as the Taiga bat that sold at Bonhams recently and the Alpina that resold after being showcased at a lawn event.
CadillacGreen
Well-Known Member
- Messages
- 244
- Reaction score
- 22
The same could be said about the housing market. What about "Flip That House" and "House Hunters"? Those shows helped propel the housing market to higher and higher prices, ultimately ending in a crash. These shows put forth the idea that higher and higher returns were always possible in a short amount of time because there would always be a buyer willing to pay more. It's the "bigger fool" theory and I have seen it happen before in the collector car market. High dollar auctions like Barrett-Jackson and the like are spectacles in and of themselves, not representative of 99.5% of all cars out there for sale. BTW, it's concours, not concourse, but you knew that, right?
You are trying to establish a relationship between rarity and demand. There is not an inverse relationship between them. There are MANY cars that are as rare as they come and still cannot sell for as much as a 1957 Chevrolet, of which THOUSANDS were built. Just because production numbers are low does not automatically mean higher prices.
Look what happened to Beanie Babies...
However, on your last statement, what exactly do you mean?
What "type" of buyer is now buying these cars? I will grant you that a lot of mania was fueled by Baby Boomers tapping into HELOC's and such to buy their dream guitar, car, boat, etc. but those buyers are now tapped out (well their banks are anyhow).
In the late 1980's it was the Japanese that drove up the prices (which then crashed when Japan did and Japan still has not recovered their stock market and real estate losses).
Who is currently driving the prices up now, today, not last year, not four years ago, but right now?
chicane
Well-Known Member
- Messages
- 1,026
- Reaction score
- 0
chicane
Well-Known Member
- Messages
- 1,026
- Reaction score
- 0
Wow, that is your compelling evidence. I watch Barret Jackson all the time and I have yet to see one E9 cross the block. But I have witnessed all other classic plummeting in price from two years ago (Just like it did in the mid-90's when vintage Ferrari prices plummeted). This whole idea of prices going up, up, up is ridiculous. And what doesn't the top 100 cars up for sale have to do with the E9, what do you think this is a Bugatti?
And I still haven't seen a link to your... ahem... B2-S.
Ok, buddy time to get off your parent's computer....
- Status